/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/USET=115␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F1


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ πqComments on essays.

␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε5by John McCarthy, Stanford University

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|These␈α_comments␈α_were␈α_solicited␈α_(and␈α_paid␈α_for)␈α_by␈α_the␈α_editors␈α_of␈α_␈↓↓The␈α_Computer␈α_Age:␈α_A
␈↓ α,␈↓↓Twenty-year␈α∪View␈↓,␈α∪edited␈α∪by␈α∪Michael␈α∪Dertouzos␈α∪and␈α∪Joel␈α∪Moses.␈α∪ On␈α∪seeing␈α∪them,␈α∪the␈α∪editors
␈↓ α,␈↓decided␈α⊂not␈α⊂to␈α⊂include␈α⊂them␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊂volume.␈α⊂ Probably␈α⊂this␈α⊂was␈α⊂because␈α⊂they␈α⊂disagreed␈α⊂with␈α⊂the
␈↓ α,␈↓comments␈α∂and␈α∂found␈α∂them␈α∂too␈α∂sharp.␈α∂ I␈α∂didn't␈α∂learn␈α∂that␈α∂they␈α∂were␈α∂being␈α∂omitted␈α∂till␈α∂I␈α∂received
␈↓ α,␈↓a complimentary copy of the book.

␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε\COMMENTS ON MOSES'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Let␈α∪me␈α∪confess␈α∪that␈α∪I␈α∪am␈α∪a␈α∪rival␈α∪recounter␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪wonders␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪computer␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪home.
␈↓ α,␈↓However,␈α⊂the␈α⊂wonders␈α⊂I␈α⊂would␈α⊂cite␈α⊂are␈α⊂not␈α⊂the␈α⊂same␈α⊂as␈α⊂those␈α⊂cited␈α⊂by␈α⊂Moses.␈α⊂ Somehow␈α⊂I␈α⊂don't
␈↓ α,␈↓quite␈α∃believe␈α∃in␈α∃his.␈α∃ Maybe␈α∃it␈α∃seems␈α∃too␈α∃much␈α∃like␈α∃the␈α∃1925␈α∃accounts␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃future␈α∃cultural
␈↓ α,␈↓bene≡ts of television.  Perhaps my predictions would be subject to similar criticism.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α∩have␈α∩three␈α∩general␈α∩comments.␈α∩ First,␈α∩Moses␈α∩sometimes␈α∩prefers␈α∩to␈α∩solve␈α∩problems␈α∩in␈α∩ways
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊃require␈α⊃a␈α⊃thousand-fold␈α⊃reduction␈α⊃in␈α⊃manufacturing␈α⊃costs␈α⊃when␈α⊃they␈α⊃can␈α⊃be␈α⊃solved␈α⊃almost
␈↓ α,␈↓as␈α∀well␈α∀at␈α∀todays␈α∀costs.␈α∀ Second,␈α∀some␈α∀really␈α∀revolutionary␈α∀possibilities␈α∀are␈α∀missed.␈α∀ Third,␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓paper␈α⊃su≥ers␈α⊃from␈α⊃the␈α⊃common␈α⊃academic␈α⊃desire␈α⊃to␈α⊃determine␈α⊃what␈α⊃is␈α⊃good␈α⊃for␈α⊃the␈α⊃public,␈α⊃give
␈↓ α,␈↓them␈α∃that␈α∃and␈α∃withhold␈α∃what␈α∃is␈α∃deemed␈α∃less␈α∃good␈α∃-␈α∃rather␈α∃than␈α∃letting␈α∃everyone␈α∃choose␈α∃for
␈↓ α,␈↓himself.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α∩At␈α∩present␈α∩a␈α∩terminal␈α∩adequate␈α∩for␈α∩all␈α∩the␈α∩non-pictorial␈α∩applications␈α∩Moses␈α∩suggests␈α∩can
␈↓ α,␈↓be␈α~purchased␈α~for␈α~$950␈α~in␈α~kit␈α~form.␈α~ Since␈α~it␈α~has␈α~no␈α~large␈α~scale␈α~integration,␈α~equally␈α~good
␈↓ α,␈↓terminals␈α∃can␈α∃be␈α∃expected␈α∃to␈α∃cost␈α∃half␈α∃that␈α∃price␈α∃in␈α∃two␈α∃or␈α∃three␈α∃years,␈α∃because␈α∃the␈α∃terminal
␈↓ α,␈↓industry␈α∩is␈α∩extremely␈α∩competitive.␈α∩ A␈α∩private␈α∩telephone␈α∩line␈α∩to␈α∩a␈α∩computer␈α∩or␈α∩concentrator␈α∩≡ve
␈↓ α,␈↓miles␈α↔away␈α↔can␈α↔be␈α↔rented␈α↔for␈α↔about␈α↔$25␈α↔per␈α↔month.␈α↔ We␈α↔are␈α↔not␈α↔in␈α↔a␈α↔position␈α↔to␈α↔estimate
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α→costs,␈α→because␈α→we␈α→don't␈α→know␈α→how␈α→many␈α→subscribers␈α→a␈α→present␈α→minicomputer␈α→can
␈↓ α,␈↓handle.␈α⊃ Possibly␈α⊃machines␈α⊃are␈α⊃now␈α⊃cost-e≥ective␈α⊃enough␈α⊃to␈α⊃provide␈α⊃the␈α⊃services␈α⊃Moses␈α⊃depicts
␈↓ α,␈↓at␈α⊃$50␈α⊃per␈α⊃month,␈α⊃but␈α⊃it␈α⊃is␈α⊂also␈α⊃possible␈α⊃that␈α⊃another␈α⊃three␈α⊃to␈α⊃≡ve␈α⊃years␈α⊃hardware␈α⊃development
␈↓ α,␈↓is␈α∪required.␈α∪ We␈α∪contrast␈α∪this␈α∪to␈α∪the␈α∪proposal␈α∪to␈α∪put␈α∪what␈α∪is␈α∪now␈α∪a␈α∪$500,000␈α∪computer␈α∪in␈α∪the
␈↓ α,␈↓home.  Pie-in-the-sky is ≡ne but not in competition with pie-in-the-hand.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α∂Similarly␈α∂Moses␈α∂greatly␈α∂underestimates␈α∂the␈α∂possibilities␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂ordinary␈α∂telephone␈α∂network
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α∂provide␈α∂home␈α∂computer␈α∂services.␈α∂ He␈α∂estimates␈α∂a␈α∂page␈α∂at␈α∂10,000␈α∂bits,␈α∂1000␈α∂to␈α∂2000␈α∂bits/second
␈↓ α,␈↓communication␈α⊃rate,␈α⊃estimates␈α⊃10␈α⊃seconds␈α⊃to␈α⊃turn␈α⊃a␈α⊃page,␈α⊃demands␈α⊃page␈α⊃turning␈α⊃in␈α⊃one␈α⊃second,
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∂rules␈α∂out␈α∂the␈α∂telephone.␈α∂ However,␈α∂4800␈α∂bit/second␈α∂modems␈α∂already␈α∂exist␈α∂for␈α∂unconditioned
␈↓ α,␈↓lines␈α∀and␈α∀9600␈α∀bit/second␈α∀modems␈α∀for␈α∀conditioned␈α∀lines.␈α∀ Moreover,␈α∀a␈α∀micro-processor␈α∀can␈α∀be
␈↓ α,␈↓programmed␈α↔to␈α↔expand␈α↔text␈α↔that␈α↔has␈α↔been␈α↔encoded␈α↔to␈α↔half␈α↔its␈α↔volume.␈α↔ Finally,␈α↔have␈α↔1800
␈↓ α,␈↓bits/second␈α∪into␈α∪my␈α∪home␈α∪terminal␈α∪now␈α∪without␈α∪any␈α∪information␈α∪compression,␈α∪and␈α∪I␈α∪≡nd␈α∪it␈α∪a
␈↓ α,␈↓tri∨e␈α⊂annoying␈α⊂for␈α⊂reading␈α⊂some␈α⊂times,␈α⊂but␈α⊂entirely␈α⊂acceptable.␈α⊂ Cable␈α⊂TV␈α⊂on␈α⊂the␈α⊂other␈α⊂hand␈α⊂is
␈↓ α,␈↓not␈α∪widespread,␈α∪and␈α∪general␈α∪purpose␈α∪communication␈α∩is␈α∪unlikely␈α∪to␈α∪become␈α∪a␈α∪major␈α∪interest␈α∪of
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α~cable␈α~TV␈α~operators␈α~in␈α~the␈α~near␈α~future,␈α~while␈α~libraries␈α~can␈α~be␈α~accessible␈α~through␈α~the
␈↓ α,␈↓telephone system as soon as the information is converted to computer form.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α⊂There␈α⊂are␈α⊂really␈α⊂revolutionary␈α⊂possibilities␈α⊂for␈α⊂demonopolizing␈α⊂publication.␈α⊂ At␈α⊂present␈α⊂a
␈↓ α,␈↓book,␈α∨magazine␈α∨or␈α∨newspaper␈α∨is␈α∨produced␈α∨by␈α∨an␈α∨organization␈α∨with␈α∨many␈α∨hundreds␈α∨of
␈↓ α,␈↓employees␈α∃and␈α∃capital␈α∃in␈α∃the␈α∃hundreds␈α∃of␈α∃thousands␈α∃or␈α∃millions␈α∃of␈α∃dollars.␈α∃ When␈α∃there␈α∃are
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F2


␈↓ α,␈↓large␈α⊃public␈α⊃data␈α⊃≡les,␈α⊃it␈α⊃will␈α⊃be␈α⊃possible␈α⊃for␈α⊃an␈α⊃individual␈α⊃to␈α⊃publish␈α⊃by␈α⊃himself.␈α⊃ If␈α⊃he␈α⊃is␈α⊃well
␈↓ α,␈↓known,␈α⊃the␈α⊃public␈α⊃will␈α⊃have␈α⊃their␈α⊃personal␈α⊃library␈α⊃programs␈α⊃check␈α⊃for␈α⊃his␈α⊃new␈α⊃writings.␈α⊃ If␈α⊃he
␈↓ α,␈↓is␈α~not␈α~well␈α~known,␈α~he␈α~will␈α~have␈α~to␈α~get␈α~his␈α~writings␈α~reviewed␈α~by␈α~in∨uential␈α~reviewers.␈α~ A
␈↓ α,␈↓correspondent␈α≠in␈α≠Constantinople␈α≠could␈α≠get␈α≠his␈α≠dispatches␈α≠on␈α≠Byzantine␈α≠politics␈α≠before␈α≠his
␈↓ α,␈↓faithful readers without the help of any organization.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|If␈α⊃you␈α⊃disagree␈α⊃with␈α⊃me␈α⊃about␈α⊃the␈α⊃above,␈α⊃dear␈α⊃reader,␈α⊃just␈α⊃think␈α⊃that␈α⊃with␈α⊃the␈α⊃new␈α⊃system
␈↓ α,␈↓you␈α∂could␈α∂express␈α∂your␈α∂doubts␈α∂in␈α∂a␈α∂≡le␈α∂accessible␈α∂to␈α∂any␈α∂subsequent␈α∂reader.␈α∂ As␈α∂he␈α∂reads␈α∂a␈α∂page
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α⊃this,␈α⊃he␈α⊃need␈α⊃only␈α⊃type␈α⊃"COMMENTS?"␈α⊃on␈α⊃his␈α⊃terminal,␈α⊃and␈α⊃there␈α⊃they␈α⊃would␈α⊃be.␈α⊃ He␈α⊃can
␈↓ α,␈↓also type "REREBUTTAL?"

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4.␈α∀Fortunately,␈α∀the␈α∀home␈α∀computer␈α∀users␈α∀will␈α∀have␈α∀implemented␈α∀electronic␈α∀mail␈α∀using␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓telephone␈α∃system␈α∃long␈α∃before␈α∃the␈α∃O≠ce␈α∃of␈α∃Technology␈α∃Assessment␈α∃or␈α∃the␈α∃Postal␈α∃Service␈α∃can
␈↓ α,␈↓decide whether to forbid it in order to preserve the monopoly.

␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ επCOMMENTS ON NEGROPONTE'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α~vision␈α~of␈α~future␈α~of␈α~the␈α~arts␈α~presented␈α~in␈α~this␈α~paper␈α~seems␈α~only␈α~too␈α~plausible.␈α~ I
␈↓ α,␈↓certainly␈α⊂ascribes␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂arts␈α⊂a␈α⊂smaller␈α⊂role␈α⊂in␈α⊂forming␈α⊂the␈α⊂human␈α⊂spirit␈α⊂than␈α⊂they␈α⊂have␈α⊂had␈α⊂in
␈↓ α,␈↓the past.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∪computer␈α∪can␈α∪indeed␈α∪bring␈α∪new␈α∪tools␈α∪to␈α∪the␈α∪artist.␈α∪ Unfortunately,␈α∪the␈α∪arts␈α∪today␈α∪are
␈↓ α,␈↓not␈α⊃in␈α⊃a␈α⊃good␈α⊃mental␈α⊃position␈α⊃to␈α⊃use␈α⊃new␈α⊃tools␈α⊃or␈α⊃even␈α⊃their␈α⊃old␈α⊃tools.␈α⊃ Somehow␈α⊃the␈α⊃view␈α⊃that
␈↓ α,␈↓an artist is primarily a maker of metaphors contributes to this situation.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F3


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε→COMMENTS ON DERTOUZOS'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α_agree␈α_with␈α_Dertouzos's␈α_fundamental␈α_contention␈α_that␈α_information␈α_processing␈α_technology
␈↓ α,␈↓will␈α≥enable␈α≥us␈α≥␈↓↓"to␈α≥reverse␈α≥some␈α≥of␈α≥the␈α≥impersonal␈α≥and␈α≥dehumanizing␈α≥consequences␈α≥of␈α≥the
␈↓ α,␈↓↓industrial␈α⊃revolution"␈↓.␈α⊃ -␈α⊃at␈α⊃least␈α⊃to␈α⊃reverse␈α⊃what␈α⊃are␈α⊃perceived␈α⊃as␈α⊃such␈α⊃consequences.␈α⊃ We␈α⊃shall
␈↓ α,␈↓indeed␈α~have␈α~individually␈α~designed␈α~shoes␈α~and␈α~clothes␈α~at␈α~a␈α~price␈α~close␈α~to␈α~that␈α~of␈α~the␈α~mass
␈↓ α,␈↓produced␈α∂product.␈α∂ On␈α∂the␈α∂other␈α∂hand␈α∂I␈α∂≡nd␈α∂the␈α∂detailed␈α∂picture␈α∂rather␈α∂implausible␈α∂for␈α∂reasons
␈↓ α,␈↓I can't always quite state.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|My␈α$basic␈α$problem␈α$is␈α$that␈α$Dertouzos␈α$sees␈α$the␈α$various␈α$marvels␈α$as␈α$straightforward
␈↓ α,␈↓improvements␈α#of␈α#present␈α#trends.␈α# Therefore,␈α#he␈α#tends␈α#to␈α#project␈α#present␈α#ideas␈α#to␈α#the
␈↓ α,␈↓achievement␈α⊂of␈α⊂these␈α⊂goals.␈α⊂ I␈α⊂think␈α⊂we␈α⊂are␈α⊂at␈α⊂least␈α⊂one␈α⊂scienti≡c␈α⊂revolution␈α⊂away␈α⊂from␈α⊂the␈α⊂level
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α≠arti≡cial␈α≠intelligence␈α≠required␈α≠to␈α≠achieve␈α≠many␈α≠of␈α≠the␈α≠objectives␈α≠present␈α≠in␈α≠this␈α≠paper.
␈↓ α,␈↓Therefore, the future will be more intellectually surprising than the paper suggests.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Here are some speci≡c disagreements, mostly minor:

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α⊃Like␈α⊃most␈α⊃writers,␈α⊃Dertouzos␈α⊃jumps␈α⊃to␈α⊂conclusions␈α⊃about␈α⊃the␈α⊃relation␈α⊃between␈α⊃technology
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∃employment.␈α∃ Looking␈α∃at␈α∃the␈α∃past,␈α∃American␈α∃industrial␈α∃productivity␈α∃has␈α∃grown␈α∃by␈α∃more
␈↓ α,␈↓than␈α↔an␈α↔order␈α↔of␈α↔magnitude␈α↔since␈α↔1900.␈α↔ Unemployment␈α↔levels␈α↔are␈α↔similar,␈α↔and␈α↔their␈α↔is␈α↔no
␈↓ α,␈↓correlation␈α≠between␈α≠speci≡c␈α≠advances␈α≠in␈α≠technology␈α≠and␈α≠the␈α≠level␈α≠of␈α≠unemployment.␈α≠ The
␈↓ α,␈↓economic␈α!servomechanisms␈α!governing␈α!employment␈α!have␈α!a␈α!much␈α!shorter␈α!time-scale␈α!than
␈↓ α,␈↓technological␈α∪advance.␈α∪ They␈α∪can␈α∪handle␈α∪much␈α∪faster␈α∪rates␈α∪of␈α∪advance␈α∪than␈α∪are␈α∪likely␈α∪in␈α∪this
␈↓ α,␈↓country.␈α  For␈α example,␈α they␈α can␈α handle␈α the␈α ten␈α percent␈α per␈α year␈α advance␈α that␈α Japan
␈↓ α,␈↓experienced␈α∂during␈α∂the␈α∂1960s.␈α∂ The␈α∂error␈α∂is␈α∂like␈α∂someone␈α∂trying␈α∂to␈α∂predict␈α∂the␈α∂e≥ect␈α∂of␈α∂a␈α∂change
␈↓ α,␈↓in␈α↔the␈α↔gain␈α↔of␈α↔a␈α↔stage␈α↔of␈α↔a␈α↔feedback␈α↔ampli≡er␈α↔on␈α↔the␈α↔output.␈α↔ There␈α↔is␈α↔an␈α↔e≥ect,␈α↔but␈α↔it␈α↔is
␈↓ α,␈↓completely␈α⊃masked␈α⊃by␈α⊃the␈α⊃feedback␈α⊃loop.␈α⊃ Unfortunately,␈α⊃we␈α⊃don't␈α⊃yet␈α⊃know␈α⊃how␈α⊃to␈α⊃control␈α⊃the
␈↓ α,␈↓economic feedback loop.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α~Count␈α~me␈α~with␈α~those␈α~who␈α~believe␈α~there␈α~is␈α~nothing␈α~qualitatively␈α~new␈α~in␈α~connecting
␈↓ α,␈↓computers␈α∪together.␈α∪ I␈α∪think␈α∪one␈α∪can␈α∪prove␈α∪mathematically␈α∪that␈α∪one␈α∪computer␈α∪can␈α∪simulate␈α∪n-
␈↓ α,␈↓interacting computers at a speed of approximately 1/n times real time.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α→While␈α→"arithmetic␈α→atrophy"␈α→of␈α→some␈α→kind␈α→is␈α→a␈α→plausible␈α→conjecture,␈α→I'll␈α→bet␈α→␈↓∧1␈↓50␈α→that
␈↓ α,␈↓Dertouzos can't cite a study actually observing it (written before December 1977).

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4.␈α∩One␈α∩false␈α∩note␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩shoe␈α∩scenario␈α∩is␈α∩the␈α∩card.␈α∩ The␈α∩home␈α∩terminal␈α∩and␈α∩personal␈α∩data
␈↓ α,␈↓≡les␈α⊃will␈α⊃almost␈α⊃certainly␈α⊃precede␈α⊃the␈α⊃shoe-maker,␈α⊃so␈α⊃one's␈α⊃measurements␈α⊃will␈α⊃be␈α⊃stored␈α⊃in␈α⊃one's
␈↓ α,␈↓home ≡les and so will the results of new measurements.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F4


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε#COMMENTS ON WINOGRAD'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∂loan␈α∂refusal␈α∂scenario,␈α∂the␈α∂diagnosis␈α∂of␈α∂what␈α∂is␈α∂wrong␈α∂with␈α∂the␈α∂way␈α∂computers␈α∂are␈α∂used,
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α≡statement␈α≡of␈α≡how␈α≡the␈α≡public␈α≡regards␈α≡computers,␈α≡and␈α≡the␈α≡proposed␈α≡remedies␈α≡are␈α≡all
␈↓ α,␈↓unconvincing.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|As␈α⊃long␈α⊃as␈α⊃computers␈α⊃exist,␈α⊃clerks␈α⊃will␈α⊃sometimes␈α⊃blame␈α⊃them,␈α⊃when␈α⊃they␈α⊃can't␈α⊃or␈α⊃won't␈α⊃do
␈↓ α,␈↓what␈α∂a␈α∂petitioner␈α∂requests.␈α∂ The␈α∂loan␈α∂refusal␈α∂scenario␈α∂seems␈α∂vaguely␈α∂untypical,␈α∂and␈α∂it␈α∂isn't␈α∂stated
␈↓ α,␈↓whether the clerk is putting his customer on.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Whether␈α_clerks␈α_have␈α_become␈α_less␈α_responsive␈α_and,␈α_if␈α_so,␈α_whether␈α_computers␈α_have␈α_made
␈↓ α,␈↓matters␈α⊂worse,␈α⊂should␈α⊂be␈α⊂investigated␈α⊂not␈α⊂presumed.␈α⊂ I␈α⊂would␈α⊂guess␈α⊂that␈α⊂record␈α⊂keeping␈α⊂systems
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α∂involve␈α∂weekly␈α∂or␈α∂even␈α∂monthly␈α∂tape-to-tape␈α∂processing␈α∂have␈α∂made␈α∂personal␈α∂request␈α∂harder
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α∀ful≡ll,␈α∀because␈α∀the␈α∀data␈α∀is␈α∀often␈α∀inaccessible␈α∀for␈α∀inspection␈α∀or␈α∀change,␈α∀and␈α∀I'll␈α∀bet␈α∀this␈α∀has
␈↓ α,␈↓been␈α⊃much␈α⊃more␈α⊃important␈α⊃than␈α⊃the␈α⊃use␈α⊂of␈α⊃numbers␈α⊃rather␈α⊃than␈α⊃names.␈α⊃ The␈α⊃transition␈α⊃to␈α⊃on-
␈↓ α,␈↓line␈α∩systems␈α∩should␈α∩be␈α∩encouraged,␈α∩and␈α∩then␈α∩we␈α∩can␈α∩really␈α∩put␈α∩on␈α∩the␈α∩pressure␈α∩to␈α∩treat␈α∩people
␈↓ α,␈↓better.␈α∩ My␈α∩favorite␈α∩courtesy␈α∩is␈α∩that␈α∩no␈α∩organization␈α∩should␈α∩ask␈α∩anyone␈α∩a␈α∩question␈α∩to␈α∩which␈α∩it
␈↓ α,␈↓already␈α∞has␈α∂an␈α∂answer,␈α∂though␈α∂it␈α∂may␈α∂ask␈α∞for␈α∂con≡rmation.␈α∂ Direct␈α∂terminal␈α∂access␈α∂by␈α∂the␈α∂public
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α∪business␈α∪and␈α∪government␈α∪data␈α∪bases␈α∪and␈α∪policy␈α∪descriptions␈α∪and␈α∪rationalizations␈α∪will␈α∪make
␈↓ α,␈↓more di≥erence than use by clerks of natural language dialogs.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α⊃don't␈α⊃really␈α⊃know␈α⊃what␈α⊃ideas␈α⊃about␈α⊃computers␈α⊃di≥erent␈α⊃people␈α⊃have.␈α⊃ I␈α⊃suspect␈α⊃that␈α⊃most
␈↓ α,␈↓people␈α∩don't␈α∩think␈α∩about␈α∩computers␈α∩much,␈α∩because␈α∩so␈α∩far␈α∩they␈α∩merely␈α∩do␈α∩more␈α∩e≠ciently␈α∩what
␈↓ α,␈↓has␈α∃been␈α∃done␈α∃all␈α∃along.␈α∃ It␈α∃is␈α∃just␈α∃as␈α∃presumptuous␈α∃for␈α∃us␈α∃computer␈α∃scientists␈α∃to␈α∃invent␈α∃the
␈↓ α,␈↓public as it is for uninformed people to act on imagined characteristics of computers.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α∞think␈α∂Winograd␈α∂magni≡es␈α∂the␈α∂importance␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∞≡eld␈α∂in␈α∂which␈α∂he␈α∂(and␈α∂I)␈α∂work␈α∂in␈α∂making
␈↓ α,␈↓bureaucratic␈α∂systems␈α∂more␈α∂responsive.␈α∂ The␈α∂key␈α∂problem␈α∂is␈α∂to␈α∂handle␈α∂routine␈α∂matters␈α∂su≠ciently
␈↓ α,␈↓automatically␈α∪so␈α∪that␈α∪people␈α∪with␈α∪non-routine␈α∪problems␈α∪can␈α∪get␈α∪the␈α∪attention␈α∪of␈α∪someone␈α∪with
␈↓ α,␈↓authority␈α∩to␈α∩help.␈α∩ This␈α∩has␈α∩become␈α∩more␈α∩di≠cult,␈α∩because␈α∩the␈α∩loss␈α∩of␈α∩self-con≡dence␈α∩by␈α∩every
␈↓ α,␈↓kind␈α∩of␈α∩authority␈α∩means␈α∩that␈α∩one␈α∩can␈α∩always␈α∩get␈α∩a␈α∩bit␈α∩more␈α∩by␈α∩being␈α∩a␈α∩pest␈α∩-␈α∩with␈α∩or␈α∩without
␈↓ α,␈↓the help of lawyers.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|As␈α∀Winograd␈α∀suggests,␈α∀the␈α∀goal␈α∀must␈α∀be␈α∀a␈α∀system␈α∀in␈α∀which␈α∀a␈α∀person␈α∀can␈α∀interact␈α∀with␈α∀a
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α∂system␈α∂that␈α∂understands␈α∂the␈α∂policies␈α∂and␈α∂goals␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂organization␈α∂rather␈α∂well␈α∂and␈α∂can
␈↓ α,␈↓automatically␈α⊂arrive␈α⊂at␈α⊂solutions␈α⊂that␈α⊂today␈α⊂are␈α⊂bureaucratically␈α⊂impossible.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂more␈α⊂often␈α⊂an
␈↓ α,␈↓automatic␈α⊃system␈α⊃can␈α⊃arrive␈α⊃at␈α⊃the␈α⊃same␈α⊃solution␈α⊃the␈α⊃board␈α⊃of␈α⊃directors␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃company␈α⊃would
␈↓ α,␈↓reach, the higher the level at which special circumstances can be considered.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∪present␈α∪e≥orts␈α∪at␈α∪natural␈α∪language␈α∪dialog␈α∪seem␈α∪premature␈α∪in␈α∪that␈α∪the␈α∪words␈α∪used␈α∪go
␈↓ α,␈↓beyond␈α∩the␈α∩understanding␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩programs.␈α∩ For␈α∩example␈α∩the␈α∩program␈α∩that␈α∩accepts␈α∩␈↓↓"I␈α∩must␈α∩be
␈↓ α,␈↓↓in␈α∪San␈α∪Diego␈α∪before␈α∪10␈α∪AM"␈↓␈α∪almost␈α∪certainly␈α∪doesn't␈α∪understand␈α∪␈↓↓"must"␈↓␈α∪well␈α∪enough␈α∪to␈α∪know
␈↓ α,␈↓when␈α⊂to␈α⊂ask␈α⊂whether␈α⊂chartering␈α⊂a␈α⊂plane␈α⊂is␈α⊂warranted.␈α⊂ Research␈α⊂in␈α⊂understanding␈α⊂the␈α⊂common
␈↓ α,␈↓sense world is more needed than more dialog programs.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F5


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ πεComments on Licklider's paper.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Licklider␈α⊗is␈α⊗right␈α⊗that␈α⊗the␈α⊗new␈α⊗technologies␈α⊗of␈α⊗computers,␈α⊗communication␈α⊗and␈α⊗databases
␈↓ α,␈↓provide␈α∀great␈α∀opportunities␈α∀to␈α∀improve␈α∀government␈α∀and␈α∀its␈α∀interaction␈α∀with␈α∀other␈α∀institutions
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∪with␈α∪individuals.␈α∪ His␈α∪proposed␈α∪vehicle␈α∪is␈α∪a␈α∪government␈α∪organized␈α∪␈↓↓"Multinet"␈↓␈α∪combining
␈↓ α,␈↓communication,␈α!data␈α!bases,␈α transaction␈α!monitoring,␈α!and␈α!computation.␈α! Unfortunately,␈α!the
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓↓Multinet␈↓␈α↔idea␈α↔misses␈α↔major␈α↔opportunities␈α↔to␈α↔bene≡t␈α↔citizens␈α↔that␈α↔can␈α↔be␈α↔implemented␈α↔much
␈↓ α,␈↓more␈α∩quickly,␈α∩and␈α∩the␈α∩proposals␈α∩overemphasize␈α∩government,␈α∩require␈α∩co-ordination␈α∩of␈α∩activities
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α∩can␈α∩better␈α∩be␈α∩developed␈α∩separately,␈α∩create␈α∩unnecessary␈α∩and␈α∩harmful␈α∩monopolies,␈α∩and␈α∩sti∨e
␈↓ α,␈↓individual and business initiative.  I also disagree with some of its technological judgments.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Licklider␈α⊃seems␈α⊃to␈α⊃envisage␈α⊃government␈α⊃as␈α⊃embodying␈α⊃the␈α⊃collective␈α⊃wisdom␈α⊃of␈α⊃society␈α⊃and
␈↓ α,␈↓setting␈α⊂up␈α⊂institutions␈α⊂and␈α⊂laws␈α⊂that␈α⊂once␈α⊂␈↓↓"cast␈α⊂into␈α⊂both␈α⊂legislation␈α⊂and␈α⊂software,␈α⊂...␈α⊂may␈α⊂come␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓↓be␈α⊃regarded␈α⊃the␈α⊃same␈α⊃way␈α⊃as␈α⊃physical␈α⊃laws␈α⊃are␈α⊃regarded␈α⊃now:␈α⊃irresistable,␈α⊃inviolable,␈α⊃inescapable,
␈↓ α,␈↓↓part␈α⊃of␈α⊃nature,␈α⊃invariably␈α⊃enforced,␈α⊃not␈α⊃the␈α⊃kind␈α⊃of␈α⊃thing␈α⊃one␈α⊃complains␈α⊃about"␈↓.␈α⊃ For␈α⊃good␈α⊃or␈α⊃ill,
␈↓ α,␈↓government␈α∪plays␈α∪quite␈α∪a␈α∪di≥erent␈α∪role␈α∪in␈α∪every␈α∪society␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪world.␈α∪ In∨uencing␈α∪law␈α∪and␈α∪its
␈↓ α,␈↓interpretation␈α⊃is␈α⊃a␈α⊃major␈α⊃means␈α⊃of␈α⊃struggle␈α⊃for␈α⊃group␈α⊃advantage␈α⊃and␈α⊃individual␈α⊃wealth,␈α⊃power
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∂prestige.␈α∂ Therefore,␈α∂government␈α∂law␈α∂is␈α∂unlikely␈α∂to␈α∂resemble␈α∂natural␈α∂law␈α∂in␈α∂impartiality␈α∂and
␈↓ α,␈↓constancy in the forseeable future.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|A␈α∪consumer␈α∪is␈α∪better␈α∪served␈α∪when␈α∪manufacturers␈α∪compete␈α∪for␈α∪his␈α∪dollar␈α∪than␈α∪when␈α∪their
␈↓ α,␈↓lawyers␈α↔compete␈α↔for␈α↔the␈α↔favor␈α↔of␈α↔Congressmen,␈α↔regulators,␈α↔or␈α↔judges␈α↔-␈α↔even␈α↔when␈α↔all␈α↔these
␈↓ α,␈↓o≠cials␈α∀are␈α∀trying␈α∀to␈α∀act␈α∀on␈α∀his␈α∀behalf.␈α∀ Unfortunately,␈α∀some␈α∀services␈α∀are␈α∀natural␈α∀monopolies
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∂require␈α∂regulation.␈α∂ When␈α∂a␈α∂complex␈α∂of␈α∂new␈α∂technologies␈α∂becomes␈α∂available,␈α∂it␈α∂is␈α∂important
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α∂distinguish␈α∂what␈α∂are␈α∂the␈α∂natural␈α∂monopolies␈α∂and␈α∂what␈α∂can␈α∂be␈α∂provided␈α∂by␈α∂competing␈α∂servers.
␈↓ α,␈↓The ␈↓↓Multinet␈↓ proposal lumps them all together.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Thus␈α_communication␈α_of␈α_raw␈α_information␈α_may␈α_remain␈α_a␈α_natural␈α_monopoly,␈α_but␈α_devices
␈↓ α,␈↓connected␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂communication␈α⊂network␈α⊂are␈α⊂not.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂operation␈α⊂of␈α⊂particular␈α⊂public␈α⊂databases
␈↓ α,␈↓such␈α∪as␈α∪a␈α∪national␈α∪library,␈α∪the␈α∪airline␈α∪guide␈α∪or␈α∪a␈α∪national␈α∪telephone␈α∪directory␈α∪seem␈α∪to␈α∪be␈α∪new
␈↓ α,␈↓natural␈α∂monopolies,␈α∂although␈α∂di≥erent␈α∂databases␈α∂can␈α∂have␈α∂di≥erent␈α∂proprietors,␈α∂and␈α∂methods␈α∂of
␈↓ α,␈↓accessing␈α∂the␈α∂database␈α∂can␈α∂sometimes␈α∂compete.␈α∂ Computation␈α∂services␈α∂and␈α∂much␈α∂so-called␈α∂value-
␈↓ α,␈↓added communication are not natural monopolies.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Here are some detailed comments:

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|5.␈α∃The␈α∃stated␈α∃assumption␈α∃about␈α∃programation␈α∃that␈α∃␈↓↓"unless␈α∃it␈α∃is␈α∃wisely␈α∃planned␈α∃and␈α∃well
␈↓ α,␈↓↓executed,␈α⊗it␈α⊗will␈α⊗be␈α⊗disastrous␈α∃in␈α⊗the␈α⊗long␈α⊗run"␈↓␈α⊗is␈α⊗unsupported␈α⊗by␈α⊗any␈α⊗example␈α⊗of␈α⊗what␈α⊗bad
␈↓ α,␈↓things␈α⊗will␈α⊗happen␈α⊗if␈α⊗data-processing␈α⊗and␈α⊗communication␈α⊗continue␈α⊗unplanned.␈α⊗ To␈α⊗be␈α⊗a␈α⊗bit
␈↓ α,␈↓rude,␈α∂it␈α∂sounds␈α∂like␈α∂self-serving␈α∂nonsense␈α∂on␈α∂behalf␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂"public␈α∂policy␈α∂community"␈α∂and␈α∂people
␈↓ α,␈↓who␈α∪want␈α∪the␈α∪authority␈α∪to␈α∪regulate.␈α∪ Certainly␈α∪Licklider's␈α∪␈↓↓Scenario␈α∪1␈↓␈α∪can't␈α∪be␈α∪called␈α∪a␈α∪disaster.
␈↓ α,␈↓It␈α≠just␈α≠depicts␈α≠some␈α≠opportunities␈α≠missed␈α≠if␈α≠the␈α≠government␈α≠doesn't␈α≠take␈α≠them.␈α≠ Since␈α≠co-
␈↓ α,␈↓ordination␈α∂requires␈α∂the␈α∂authority␈α∂to␈α∂forbid␈α∂independent␈α∂initiative␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂area␈α∂to␈α∂be␈α∂co-ordinated,
␈↓ α,␈↓claims that co-ordination is required are not just truisms and must be very well justi≡ed.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α∪suppose␈α∪the␈α∪statement,␈α∪␈↓↓"recognizing␈α∪the␈α∪potential␈α∪signi≡cance␈α∪of␈α∪computer␈α∪communication,
␈↓ α,␈↓↓the␈α∩government␈α∩organizes␈α∩all␈α∩the␈α∩capabilities␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩society␈α∩to␈α∩develop␈α∩and␈α∩exploit␈α∩networking␈α∩in
␈↓ α,␈↓↓socially␈α⊃as␈α⊃well␈α⊃as␈α⊃economically␈α⊃productive␈α⊃dimensions"␈↓␈α⊃is␈α⊃not␈α⊃intended␈α⊃to␈α⊃be␈α⊃taken␈α⊃literally.␈α⊃ No-
␈↓ α,␈↓one␈α∪has␈α∪shown␈α∪that␈α∪networking␈α∪has␈α∪potentials␈α∪justifying␈α∪government␈α∪powers␈α∪that␈α∪were␈α∪hardly
␈↓ α,␈↓asserted␈α∩even␈α∩during␈α∩World␈α∩War␈α∩II.␈α∩ Licklider␈α∩should␈α∩say␈α∩precisely␈α∩what␈α∩powers␈α∩he␈α∩wants␈α∩the
␈↓ α,␈↓government to have, making explicit the cost to society of giving the goverment such power.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F6


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|6.␈α∩We␈α∩have␈α∩in␈α∩Scenario␈α∩2,␈α∩␈↓↓"The␈α∩Multinet␈α∩has␈α∩supplanted␈α∩the␈α∩postal␈α∩system␈α∩for␈α∩letters,␈α∩the
␈↓ α,␈↓↓dial␈α→telephone␈α→system␈α→for␈α→conversations␈α_and␈α→teleconferences,␈α→stand-alone␈α→batch␈α→processing␈α→and
␈↓ α,␈↓↓time-sharing␈α∀systems␈α∀for␈α∀computation,␈α∀and␈α∀most␈α∀≡ling␈α∀cabinets,␈α∀micro≡lm␈α∀repositories,␈α∀document
␈↓ α,␈↓↓rooms,␈α≠and␈α≠libraries␈α≠for␈α≠information␈α≠storage␈α≠and␈α≠retrieval"␈↓.␈α≠ Some␈α≠activities,␈α≠like␈α≠telephone
␈↓ α,␈↓communication,␈α⊗are␈α⊗natural␈α⊗monopolies,␈α⊗and␈α⊗others,␈α⊗like␈α⊗providing␈α⊗computation␈α⊗services,␈α⊗are
␈↓ α,␈↓not.␈α~ Experience␈α~seems␈α~to␈α~show␈α~that␈α~when␈α~an␈α~activity␈α~is␈α~a␈α~natural␈α~monopoly,␈α~it␈α~is␈α~better
␈↓ α,␈↓operated␈α⊃as␈α⊃a␈α⊃private␈α⊃monopoly␈α⊃regulated␈α⊃by␈α⊃the␈α⊃government.␈α⊃ Government␈α⊃monopoly␈α⊃is␈α⊃worse
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∩so␈α∩is␈α∩a␈α∩government␈α∩regulated␈α∩cartel␈α∩(like␈α∩the␈α∩airlines␈α∩or␈α∩interstate␈α∩commerce).␈α∩ The␈α∩reason
␈↓ α,␈↓why␈α∩the␈α∩latter␈α∩two␈α∩work␈α∩out␈α∩badly␈α∩is␈α∩again␈α∩political␈α∩struggle␈α∩for␈α∩advantage␈α∩rewarding␈α∩the␈α∩best
␈↓ α,␈↓lawyers and the best politicians.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Several␈α⊗recent␈α⊗events␈α⊗raise␈α⊗fears␈α⊗of␈α⊗the␈α⊗cartelization␈α⊗of␈α⊗computation␈α⊗and␈α⊗communication.
␈↓ α,␈↓First,␈α∀At&T␈α∀turned␈α∀over␈α∀the␈α∀␈↓↓Teletype␈↓␈α∀network␈α∀to␈α∀Western␈α∀Union␈α∀and␈α∀agreed␈α∀not␈α∀to␈α∀compete.
␈↓ α,␈↓Second,␈α!IBM␈α!settled␈α!the␈α!CDC␈α!anti-trust␈α!suit␈α!by␈α!by␈α!giving␈α!CDC␈α!the␈α!Service␈α!Bureau
␈↓ α,␈↓Corporation␈α∩and␈α∩agreeing␈α∩not␈α∩to␈α∩compete␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩area.␈α∩ Third,␈α∩the␈α∩Government's␈α∩anti-trust␈α∩suit
␈↓ α,␈↓against␈α∀IBM␈α∀may␈α∀result␈α∀in␈α∀a␈α∀non-competitive␈α∀division␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀computer␈α∀business.␈α∀ Fourth,␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓specialized␈α⊂communication␈α⊂carriers␈α⊂are␈α⊂trying␈α⊂to␈α⊂persuade␈α⊂the␈α⊂government␈α⊂to␈α⊂protect␈α⊂them␈α⊂from
␈↓ α,␈↓competition␈α⊃by␈α⊃regulating␈α⊃the␈α⊃services␈α⊃AT&T␈α⊃and␈α⊃others␈α⊃may␈α⊃o≥er.␈α⊃ Worse␈α⊃than␈α⊃all␈α⊃the␈α⊃above
␈↓ α,␈↓was␈α≠a␈α≠␈↓↓New␈α≠York␈α≠Times␈↓␈α≠editorial␈α≠proposing␈α≠to␈α≠give␈α≠electronic␈α≠mail␈α≠to␈α≠the␈α≠Postal␈α≠Service.
␈↓ α,␈↓Electronic␈α∂mail␈α∂is␈α∂not␈α∂a␈α∂natural␈α∂monopoly␈α∂at␈α∂all,␈α∂because␈α∂a␈α∂mail␈α∂terminal␈α∂is␈α∂an␈α∂ordinary␈α∂product.
␈↓ α,␈↓A␈α∪terminal␈α∪that␈α∪dials␈α∪a␈α∪recipient's␈α∪similar␈α∪terminal␈α∪can␈α∪be␈α∪marketed␈α∪today␈α∪at␈α∪less␈α∪than␈α∪$1000,
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α⊂cost␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂local␈α⊂telephone␈α⊂call␈α⊂is␈α⊂already␈α⊂less␈α⊂than␈α⊂that␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂stamp,␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂cost␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂coast-to-
␈↓ α,␈↓coast␈α⊃call␈α⊃after␈α⊃11pm␈α⊃is␈α⊃21␈α⊃cents.␈α⊃ If␈α⊃the␈α⊃Postal␈α⊃Service␈α⊃achieves␈α⊃its␈α⊃goal␈α⊃of␈α⊃a␈α⊃35␈α⊃cent␈α⊃charge␈α⊃by
␈↓ α,␈↓1985␈α∪for␈α∪a␈α∪≡rst␈α∪class␈α∪letter,␈α∪they␈α∪will␈α∪be␈α∪wiped␈α∪out␈α∪by␈α∪$500␈α∪terminals.␈α∪ Of␈α∪course,␈α∪through␈α∪the
␈↓ α,␈↓wonders␈α∀of␈α∀government␈α∀planning,␈α∀individuals␈α∀may␈α∀be␈α∀forbidden␈α∀to␈α∀communicate␈α∀in␈α∀this␈α∀way.
␈↓ α,␈↓Moreover,␈α⊗electronic␈α⊗mail␈α⊗is␈α⊗most␈α⊗useful␈α⊗in␈α⊗connection␈α⊗with␈α⊗other␈α⊗services␈α⊗performed␈α⊗by␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓same␈α⊃computer,␈α⊃and␈α⊃these␈α⊃services␈α⊃depend␈α⊃on␈α⊃the␈α⊃particular␈α⊃circumstances␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃individual␈α⊃or
␈↓ α,␈↓organization.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∀article␈α∀suggests␈α∀that␈α∀home␈α∀computers␈α∀require␈α∀government␈α∀"fostering".␈α∀ Notice␈α∀that␈α∀as
␈↓ α,␈↓soon␈α∪as␈α∪cheap␈α∪microprocessors␈α∪made␈α∪it␈α∪possible,␈α∪a␈α∪private␈α∪home␈α∪computer␈α∪industry␈α∪arose␈α∪that
␈↓ α,␈↓o≥ers␈α⊃dozens␈α⊃of␈α⊃products␈α⊃through␈α⊃hundreds␈α⊃of␈α⊃stores␈α⊃and␈α⊃supports␈α⊃more␈α⊃than␈α⊃≡ve␈α⊃magazines␈α⊃-
␈↓ α,␈↓all before Government even contemplated fostering it.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|7.␈α∂The␈α∂article␈α∂shares␈α∂the␈α∂common␈α∂system␈α∂programmer's␈α∂self-important␈α∂obsession␈α∂with␈α∂secrecy
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α⊃privacy␈α⊃and␈α⊃exaggerates␈α⊃the␈α⊃possibilities␈α⊃for␈α⊃crime␈α⊃and␈α⊃other␈α⊃misbehavior␈α⊃that␈α⊃inadequate
␈↓ α,␈↓secrecy␈α∀creates.␈α∀ It␈α∀also␈α∀puts␈α∀the␈α∀emphasis␈α∀on␈α∀preventing␈α∀more␈α∀and␈α∀more␈α∀tenuous␈α∀evils␈α∀rather
␈↓ α,␈↓than␈α⊃on␈α⊃how␈α⊃to␈α⊃do␈α⊃positive␈α⊃good.␈α⊃ Thus␈α⊃the␈α⊃Multics␈α⊃e≥ort␈α⊃produced␈α⊃a␈α⊃non-cost-e≥ective␈α⊃system
␈↓ α,␈↓because of its obsession with security.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|8.␈α~Packet␈α~switching␈α~is␈α~a␈α~worthwhile␈α~technology,␈α~and␈α~ARPA␈α~deserves␈α~much␈α~credit␈α~for
␈↓ α,␈↓developing␈α⊂it,␈α⊂but␈α⊂ARPA's␈α⊂natural␈α⊂tendency␈α⊂to␈α⊂overestimate␈α⊂what␈α⊂it␈α⊂has␈α⊂sponsored␈α⊂has␈α⊂led␈α⊂to␈α⊂a
␈↓ α,␈↓neglect␈α≥of␈α≥possibilities␈α≥for␈α≥using␈α≥the␈α≥already␈α≥ubiquitous␈α≥dial␈α≥network.␈α≥ Elsewhere␈α≥I␈α≥have
␈↓ α,␈↓proposed␈α⊃that␈α⊃much␈α⊃useful␈α⊃computer-computer␈α⊃communication,␈α⊃including␈α⊃messages,␈α⊃≡le␈α⊃transfer
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∪login␈α∪capabilities␈α∪of␈α∪ARPAnet␈α∪can␈α∪be␈α∪achieved␈α∪for␈α∪a␈α∪few␈α∪thousand␈α∪dollars␈α∪capital␈α∪cost␈α∪if
␈↓ α,␈↓ARPAnet␈α∃like␈α∃protocols␈α∃for␈α∃using␈α∃a␈α∃telephone␈α∃dialer␈α∃are␈α∃developed.␈α∃ This␈α∃proposal␈α∃is␈α∃called
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓↓Dialnet␈↓.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|9.␈α∪The␈α∪greatest␈α∪opportunities␈α∪for␈α∪improvement␈α∪in␈α∪government␈α∪that␈α∪computers␈α∪permit␈α∪is␈α∪to
␈↓ α,␈↓make government more accessible to citizens.  Here are some proposals:
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F7


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ βL9.1.␈α⊂Every␈α⊂government␈α⊂document␈α⊂that␈α⊂is␈α⊂required␈α⊂by␈α⊂the␈α⊂␈↓↓Freedom␈α⊂of␈α⊂Information␈α⊂Act␈↓␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓be␈α↔publically␈α↔accessible␈α↔should␈α↔be␈α⊗kept␈α↔in␈α↔computer␈α↔≡les␈α↔accessible␈α↔nationwide␈α↔by␈α↔telephone.
␈↓ α,␈↓This␈α⊗includes␈α⊗the␈α⊗Federal␈α⊗Register,␈α⊗the␈α⊗Congressional␈α⊗Record,␈α⊗the␈α⊗≡les␈α⊗on␈α⊗the␈α⊗status␈α⊗of␈α⊗bills
␈↓ α,␈↓(already␈α⊂kept␈α⊂by␈α⊂Congress␈α⊂for␈α⊂its␈α⊂own␈α⊂use␈α⊂in␈α⊂computers),␈α⊂court␈α⊂decisions␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂status␈α⊂of␈α⊂court
␈↓ α,␈↓cases,␈α⊃environmental␈α⊃impact␈α⊃statements,␈α⊃and␈α⊃other␈α⊃rationalizations␈α⊃of␈α⊃government␈α⊃decisions␈α⊃and
␈↓ α,␈↓regulations.␈α→ ␈↓αImplementation␈α→of␈α→this␈α→should␈α→begin␈α→right␈α→away,␈↓␈α→because␈α→organizations␈α→and
␈↓ α,␈↓individuals␈α∀can␈α∀acquire␈α∀computer␈α∀terminals␈α∀much␈α∀faster␈α∀than␈α∀the␈α∀Government␈α∀can␈α∀create␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓data bases.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ βL9.2.␈α∂Licklider␈α∂proposes␈α∂to␈α∂improve␈α∂the␈α∂Government's␈α∂ability␈α∂to␈α∂extract␈α∂information␈α∂from
␈↓ α,␈↓businesses␈α⊃and␈α⊃individuals␈α⊃by␈α⊃putting␈α⊃monitoring␈α⊃functions␈α⊃in␈α⊃␈↓↓Multinet␈↓.␈α⊃ I␈α⊃think␈α⊃this␈α⊃has␈α⊃great
␈↓ α,␈↓bene≡cial␈α⊂possibilities␈α⊂provided␈α⊂the␈α⊂information␈α⊂is␈α⊂not␈α⊂abused,␈α⊂and␈α⊂burdensome␈α⊂requirements␈α⊂of
␈↓ α,␈↓keeping␈α∩information␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩government's␈α∩preferred␈α∩form␈α∩are␈α∩not␈α∩imposed.␈α∩ But␈α∩how␈α∩about␈α∩not
␈↓ α,␈↓allowing␈α~the␈α~Government␈α~to␈α~require␈α~an␈α~individual␈α~or␈α~business␈α~to␈α~furnish␈α~information␈α~the
␈↓ α,␈↓Government already has in its ≡les?

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ βL9.3.␈α∀A␈α∀much␈α∀greater␈α∀long␈α∀range␈α∀opportunity␈α∀is␈α∀much␈α∀harder␈α∀to␈α∀realize.␈α∀ Every␈α∀policy
␈↓ α,␈↓generating␈α→and␈α→regulation␈α→generating␈α→organization␈α_should␈α→keep␈α→active␈α→a␈α→question␈α→answering
␈↓ α,␈↓program␈α∩about␈α∩the␈α∩content␈α∩and␈α∩rationale␈α∩of␈α∩its␈α∩policies.␈α∩ The␈α∩object␈α∩is␈α∩to␈α∩answer␈α∩automatically
␈↓ α,␈↓those␈α∀questions␈α∀that␈α∀can␈α∀be␈α∀so␈α∀answered␈α∀automatically␈α∀and␈α∀therefore␈α∀make␈α∀the␈α∀policy␈α∀makers
␈↓ α,␈↓more␈α⊂accessible␈α⊂to␈α⊂people␈α⊂with␈α⊂questions␈α⊂that␈α⊂can't.␈α⊂ Each␈α⊂person␈α⊂responsible␈α⊂for␈α⊂policies␈α⊂should
␈↓ α,␈↓spend␈α∃a␈α∃few␈α∃percent␈α∃of␈α∃his␈α∀time␈α∃dealing␈α∃with␈α∃the␈α∃questions␈α∃not␈α∃answered␈α∃automatically.␈α∃ ␈↓↓The
␈↓ α,␈↓↓ultimate␈α⊂goal␈α⊂would␈α⊂be␈α⊂that␈α⊂a␈α⊂person␈α⊂confronted␈α⊂with␈α⊂a␈α⊂regulation␈α⊂whose␈α⊂application␈α⊂is␈α⊂unjust␈α⊂in
␈↓ α,␈↓↓his␈α~particular␈α~case␈α~should␈α~always␈α~be␈α~able␈α~to␈α~reach␈α~a␈α~person␈α~with␈α~the␈α~authority␈α~to␈α~make␈α~an
␈↓ α,␈↓↓exception.␈↓␈α"The␈α"full␈α"achievement␈α"of␈α"this␈α"goal␈α"will␈α"require␈α"major␈α"advances␈α"in␈α"arti≡cial
␈↓ α,␈↓intelligence.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F8


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε≥COMMENTS ON VYSSOTSKY'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Dr.␈α∀Vyssotsky's␈α∀scenario␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀development␈α∀of␈α∀business␈α∀computing␈α∀between␈α∀now␈α∀and␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓year␈α⊂2000␈α⊂is␈α⊂a␈α⊂very␈α⊂plausible␈α⊂extrapolation␈α⊂of␈α⊂present␈α⊂trends.␈α⊂ However,␈α⊂there␈α⊂are␈α⊂some␈α⊂possible
␈↓ α,␈↓discontinuities.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α_I␈α_see␈α_home␈α_computer␈α↔terminals␈α_coming␈α_into␈α_wide␈α_use␈α_in␈α_the␈α_eighties.␈α_ I␈α_also␈α_see␈α_the
␈↓ α,␈↓complete␈α~equipment␈α~of␈α~businesses␈α~with␈α~terminals␈α~-␈α~to␈α~the␈α~point␈α~where␈α~there␈α~are␈α~as␈α~many
␈↓ α,␈↓terminals␈α↔as␈α↔desks.␈α↔ This␈α↔can␈α↔lead␈α↔to␈α↔systems␈α↔that␈α↔increase␈α↔bureaucratic␈α↔e≠ciency␈α↔by␈α↔larger
␈↓ α,␈↓factors than Vyssotsky projects.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α∩Electronic␈α∩communication␈α∩has␈α∩a␈α∩second␈α∩dimension␈α∩which␈α∩will␈α∩be␈α∩especially␈α∩important␈α∩in
␈↓ α,␈↓communicating␈α⊃between␈α⊃≡rms␈α⊃and␈α⊃in␈α⊃communicating␈α⊃with␈α⊃humans.␈α⊃ Consider␈α⊃communicating␈α⊃a
␈↓ α,␈↓price␈α⊂quotation␈α⊂for␈α⊂three␈α⊂ring␈α⊂binders␈α⊂at␈α⊂$1.77␈α⊂apiece.␈α⊂ In␈α⊂the␈α⊂a␈α⊂predetermined␈α⊂context,␈α⊂whether
␈↓ α,␈↓on␈α≠paper␈α≠or␈α≠in␈α≠a␈α≠computer,␈α≠the␈α≠quotation␈α≠may␈α≠be␈α≠represented␈α≠as␈α≠a␈α≠character␈α≠string␈α≠like
␈↓ α,␈↓"1ZB0461␈α_00177",␈α_but␈α_this␈α_string␈α_has␈α_no␈α_meaning␈α_beyond␈α_this␈α_context.␈α_ An␈α_equally␈α_formal
␈↓ α,␈↓representation␈α~of␈α~the␈α~same␈α~information␈α~might␈α~be␈α~((PRICE␈α~QUOTE)␈α~(VENDOR␈α~SEARS)
␈↓ α,␈↓(CATALOG␈α∃NUMBER␈α∃1ZB0461)␈α∃(DESCRIPTION␈α∃"THREE␈α∃RING␈α∃BINDER")␈α∃(COLOR
␈↓ α,␈↓BLACK)␈α∀(PRICE␈α∀$1.77))␈α∀which␈α∀might␈α∀be␈α∀a␈α∀"sentence"␈α∀in␈α∀a␈α∀␈↓↓standard␈α∀business␈α∀communication
␈↓ α,␈↓↓language␈↓.␈α∪ I␈α∪see␈α∪the␈α∪widespread␈α∪use␈α∪of␈α∪such␈α∪languages␈α∪as␈α∪an␈α∪important␈α∪possibility␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪next
␈↓ α,␈↓decades.␈α↔ The␈α↔writers␈α↔of␈α↔the␈α↔programs␈α↔that␈α↔generate␈α↔and␈α↔use␈α↔information␈α↔in␈α↔such␈α↔complete
␈↓ α,␈↓sentences␈α~need␈α~know␈α~far␈α~less␈α~of␈α~each␈α~others␈α~businesses␈α~than␈α~is␈α~required␈α~for␈α~the␈α~kinds␈α~of
␈↓ α,␈↓inter≡rm computer-to-computer in use today.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α≡Finally,␈α≡I␈α≡have␈α≡the␈α≡impression␈α≡that␈α≡the␈α≡increasing␈α≡bureaucratization␈α≡of␈α≡American
␈↓ α,␈↓business,␈α≡educational,␈α≡and␈α≡governmental␈α≡institutions␈α≡is␈α≡an␈α≡unstable␈α≡phenomenon.␈α≡ It␈α≡may
␈↓ α,␈↓continue␈α∪until␈α∪2000,␈α∪but␈α∪it␈α∪also␈α∪may␈α∪reverse␈α∪sharply␈α∪when␈α∪many␈α∪businesses␈α∪discover␈α∪that␈α∪they
␈↓ α,␈↓can do with many fewer people in bureaucratic jobs, and these compete successfully with others.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F9


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε+COMMENTS ON FERNBACH'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|With␈α⊂a␈α⊂few␈α⊂exceptions,␈α⊂Fernbach␈α⊂could␈α⊂have␈α⊂made␈α⊂the␈α⊂same␈α⊂remarks␈α⊂ten␈α⊂years␈α⊂ago,␈α⊂and␈α⊂in
␈↓ α,␈↓several␈α⊂areas,␈α⊂he␈α⊂is␈α⊂already␈α⊂behind␈α⊂the␈α⊂times.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂most␈α⊂striking␈α⊂of␈α⊂these␈α⊂is␈α⊂his␈α⊂speculation␈α⊂that
␈↓ α,␈↓perhaps␈α⊃each␈α⊃scientist␈α⊃should␈α⊃have␈α⊃a␈α⊃terminal␈α⊃in␈α⊃his␈α⊃o≠ce.␈α⊃ Our␈α⊃laboratory␈α⊃reached␈α⊃that␈α⊃point
␈↓ α,␈↓in␈α⊂1971,␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂many␈α⊂other␈α⊂laboratories␈α⊂are␈α⊂in␈α⊂that␈α⊂position␈α⊂today.␈α⊂ In␈α⊂ten␈α⊂years␈α⊂most␈α⊂students
␈↓ α,␈↓will have terminals in their dormitory rooms.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|When␈α⊃Fernbach␈α⊃lists␈α⊃the␈α⊃sciences,␈α⊃he␈α⊃forgets␈α⊃computer␈α⊃science.␈α⊃ Perhaps␈α⊃he␈α⊃regards␈α⊃it␈α⊃as␈α⊃a
␈↓ α,␈↓minor branch of physics.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|He␈α~is␈α~right␈α~that␈α~the␈α~Library␈α~of␈α~Congress␈α~should␈α~be␈α~at␈α~the␈α~≡ngertips␈α~of␈α~teachers␈α~and
␈↓ α,␈↓students.␈α∃ The␈α∃biggest␈α∃barrier,␈α∃however,␈α∃is␈α∃the␈α∃capital␈α∃cost␈α∃of␈α∃reading␈α∃the␈α∃information␈α∃into␈α∃a
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α↔≡le.␈α↔ The␈α↔≡le␈α↔storage␈α↔and␈α↔the␈α↔communication␈α↔are␈α↔already␈α↔cheap␈α↔enough␈α↔-␈α↔though
␈↓ α,␈↓barely.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂010


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ π@Comments on Bell's paper

␈↓ α,␈↓"The␈α∪Social␈α∪Framework␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪Information␈α∪Society:␈α∪The␈α∪Coming␈α∪Age␈α∪of␈α∪Communication␈α∪and
␈↓ α,␈↓Control" - by Daniel Bell

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|To␈α∪an␈α∪unreconstructed␈α∪technologist,␈α∪Professor␈α∪Bell's␈α∪article␈α∪raises␈α∪more␈α∪issues␈α∪than␈α∪I␈α∪have
␈↓ α,␈↓time for or the editors will have space for.  I shall consider two major ones.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|First␈α∂I␈α∂would␈α∂like␈α∂to␈α∂state␈α∂the␈α∂case␈α∂for␈α∂the␈α∂old-fashioned␈α∂view␈α∂that␈α∂science␈α∂and␈α∂invention␈α∂are
␈↓ α,␈↓progress␈α⊗in␈α⊗themselves.␈α⊗ Namely,␈α⊗they␈α∃give␈α⊗individuals,␈α⊗groups,␈α⊗and␈α⊗society␈α⊗as␈α⊗a␈α⊗whole␈α⊗more
␈↓ α,␈↓tools␈α∀for␈α∀dealing␈α∀with␈α∀whatever␈α∀problems␈α∀they␈α∀imagine␈α∀themselves␈α∀to␈α∀have.␈α∀ Since␈α∀all␈α∀the␈α∀old
␈↓ α,␈↓ways␈α∪are␈α∪still␈α∪potentially␈α∪available,␈α∪a␈α∪well␈α∪organized␈α∪society␈α∪should␈α∪always␈α∪achieve␈α∪a␈α∪result␈α∪no
␈↓ α,␈↓worse␈α⊃than␈α⊃could␈α⊃be␈α⊃achieved␈α⊃without␈α⊃them.␈α⊃ However,␈α⊃when␈α⊃some␈α⊃people␈α⊃take␈α⊃advantage␈α⊃of␈α⊃a
␈↓ α,␈↓new␈α⊗opportunity,␈α⊗any␈α⊗losers␈α⊗and␈α⊗even␈α⊗small␈α⊗winners␈α⊗will␈α⊗complain.␈α⊗ To␈α⊗whatever␈α⊗extent␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓complaints␈α↔are␈α↔justi≡ed,␈α↔the␈α↔fault␈α⊗lies␈α↔with␈α↔the␈α↔politicians,␈α↔the␈α↔dictators,␈α↔the␈α↔WASPs␈α↔or␈α↔any
␈↓ α,␈↓other␈α≥scapegoat␈α≥you␈α≥choose.␈α≥ They␈α≥might␈α≥equally␈α≥well␈α≥take␈α≥unfair␈α≥advantage␈α≥of␈α≥a␈α≥non-
␈↓ α,␈↓technological opportunity like the discovery of America.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|It␈α↔is␈α↔argued␈α↔that␈α↔technologies␈α↔have␈α↔momentum,␈α↔and␈α↔people␈α↔won't␈α↔stop␈α↔using␈α↔them␈α↔even
␈↓ α,␈↓when␈α⊃they␈α⊃are␈α⊃bad,␈α⊃but␈α⊃such␈α⊃complaints,␈α⊃to␈α⊃the␈α⊃extent␈α⊃that␈α⊃they␈α⊃are␈α⊃valid,␈α⊃should␈α⊃be␈α⊃addressed
␈↓ α,␈↓to the organization of society.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Actually␈α∩I␈α∩would␈α∩argue␈α∩that␈α∩new␈α∩technology␈α∩is␈α∩not␈α∩today␈α∩the␈α∩main␈α∩cause␈α∩of␈α∩change␈α∩in␈α∩our
␈↓ α,␈↓society.␈α∪ Present␈α∪social␈α∪and␈α∪political␈α∪changes␈α∪are␈α∪mainly␈α∪economic␈α∪and␈α∪social␈α∪reverberations␈α∪of
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α∂technological␈α∂changes␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂nineteenth␈α∂century.␈α∂ The␈α∂pace␈α∂of␈α∂technological␈α∂change␈α∂a≥ecting
␈↓ α,␈↓daily␈α⊂life␈α⊂has␈α⊂slowed,␈α⊂because␈α⊂the␈α⊂mine␈α⊂of␈α⊂easy␈α⊂mechanical␈α⊂innovation␈α⊂cost-e≥ective␈α⊂at␈α⊂moderate
␈↓ α,␈↓incomes␈α∂was␈α∂worked␈α∂out␈α∂early␈α∂in␈α∂this␈α∂century.␈α∂ Think␈α∂how␈α∂few␈α∂postwar␈α∂inventions␈α∂we␈α∂rely␈α∂on␈α∂in
␈↓ α,␈↓our␈α∪daily␈α∪lives␈α∪compared␈α∪to␈α∪our␈α∪reliance␈α∪on␈α∪those␈α∪that␈α∪preceded␈α∪1920.␈α∪ If␈α∪no␈α∪more␈α∪inventions
␈↓ α,␈↓were␈α∩made,␈α∩our␈α∩lives␈α∩would␈α∩remain␈α∩exciting␈α∩for␈α∩at␈α∩least␈α∩another␈α∩hundred␈α∩years␈α∩by␈α∩which␈α∩time
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α~world␈α~would␈α~reach␈α~a␈α~uniformly␈α~high␈α~but␈α~dull␈α~standard␈α~of␈α~living.␈α~ (By␈α~that␈α~time␈α~the
␈↓ α,␈↓communist␈α∃countries␈α∃will␈α∃have␈α∃solved␈α∃the␈α∃problem␈α∃of␈α∃orderly␈α∃transfer␈α∃of␈α∃power␈α∃by␈α∃the␈α∃time-
␈↓ α,␈↓tested␈α≥method␈α≥of␈α≥becoming␈α≥monarchies,␈α≥and␈α≥the␈α≥hereditary␈α≥general␈α≥secretaries␈α≥will␈α≥begin
␈↓ α,␈↓granting real but limited powers to their parliaments).

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Second,␈α_it␈α_isn't␈α_made␈α_clear␈α_which␈α_social␈α_projections␈α_of␈α_the␈α_future␈α_are␈α_considered␈α_to␈α_be
␈↓ α,␈↓founded␈α∀on␈α∀economic␈α∀and␈α∀sociological␈α∀reasoning␈α∀and␈α∀which␈α∀depend␈α∀on␈α∀speci≡c␈α∀projections␈α∀of
␈↓ α,␈↓likely␈α≡technology.␈α≡ Some␈α≡of␈α≡the␈α≡conclusions␈α≡seem␈α≡to␈α≡me␈α≡to␈α≡be␈α≡founded␈α≡on␈α≡technological
␈↓ α,␈↓projections which, while plausible, are not necessarily the way technology will lead us:

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Thus␈α⊂a␈α⊂major␈α⊂projection␈α⊂is␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂relative␈α⊂importance␈α⊂of␈α⊂information␈α⊂handling␈α⊂industries
␈↓ α,␈↓relative␈α∂to␈α∂manufacturing␈α∂will␈α∂continue␈α∂to␈α∂increase.␈α∂ It␈α∂seems␈α∂to␈α∂me␈α∂that␈α∂this␈α∂could␈α∂be␈α∂a≥ected␈α∂by
␈↓ α,␈↓two␈α∃kinds␈α∃of␈α∃development.␈α∃ First,␈α∃there␈α∀could␈α∃be␈α∃a␈α∃new␈α∃expensive␈α∃desirable␈α∃invention.␈α∃ Thus
␈↓ α,␈↓suppose␈α∂a␈α∂reliable␈α∂quiet␈α∂personal␈α∂∨ying␈α∂machine␈α∂that␈α∂could␈α∂land␈α∂anywhere␈α∂were␈α∂invented,␈α∂and␈α∂it
␈↓ α,␈↓cost␈α↔$75,000.␈α↔ Suppose␈α↔further␈α↔that␈α↔it␈α↔was␈α↔automatic␈α↔so␈α↔that␈α↔children␈α↔and␈α↔other␈α↔non-drivers
␈↓ α,␈↓could␈α∂use␈α∂it,␈α∂and␈α∂it␈α∂was␈α∂fast␈α∂enough␈α∂to␈α∂permit␈α∂commuting␈α∂from␈α∂250␈α∂miles.␈α∂ It␈α∂could␈α∂very␈α∂quickly
␈↓ α,␈↓come␈α∂to␈α∂dominate␈α∂the␈α∂economy,␈α∂because␈α∂people␈α∂would␈α∂strive␈α∂to␈α∂a≥ord␈α∂it,␈α∂and␈α∂if␈α∂the␈α∂technological
␈↓ α,␈↓facts were to dictate such a price, millions would be employed producing them.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Moreover,␈α⊃the␈α⊃growth␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃"knowledge"␈α⊃industry␈α⊂could␈α⊃be␈α⊃reversed␈α⊃by␈α⊃new␈α⊃discoveries␈α⊃in
␈↓ α,␈↓automating␈α≥paper␈α≥work.␈α≥ Once␈α≥≡rms␈α≥and␈α≥individuals␈α≥keep␈α≥all␈α≥records␈α≥in␈α≥computers␈α≥and
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂011


␈↓ α,␈↓communicate␈α!electronically,␈α!there␈α!will␈α!be␈α!an␈α!enormous␈α!payo≥␈α!in␈α!making␈α!inter≡rm␈α!and
␈↓ α,␈↓interpersonal␈α↔transactions␈α↔automatically.␈α↔ The␈α↔public␈α↔will␈α↔even␈α↔demand␈α↔that␈α↔the␈α↔government
␈↓ α,␈↓bureaucracy stop asking citizens questions to which it already has the answer.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|On␈α∂the␈α∂other␈α∂hand,␈α∂it␈α∂could␈α∂be␈α∂argued␈α∂that␈α∂the␈α∂growth␈α∂of␈α∂"knowledge␈α∂industries",␈α∂especially
␈↓ α,␈↓bureaucracy,␈α∩is␈α∩not␈α∩at␈α∩all␈α∩a␈α∩technological␈α∩phenomenon␈α∩but␈α∩a␈α∩sociological␈α∩one.␈α∩ Perhaps␈α∩middle
␈↓ α,␈↓class␈α∩young␈α∩people␈α∩prefer␈α∩information␈α∩processing␈α∩jobs,␈α∩squeeze␈α∩into␈α∩them,␈α∩and␈α∩work␈α∩to␈α∩expand
␈↓ α,␈↓their␈α∩functions.␈α∩ The␈α∩demand␈α∩for␈α∩"relevant"␈α∩work␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩sixties␈α∩can␈α∩be␈α∩regarded␈α∩as␈α∩a␈α∩demand
␈↓ α,␈↓for␈α⊗the␈α⊗expansion␈α⊗of␈α⊗bureaucracy.␈α⊗ At␈α⊗least␈α⊗the␈α⊗job␈α⊗of␈α⊗a␈α⊗maker␈α⊗and␈α⊗enforcer␈α⊗of␈α⊗regulations
␈↓ α,␈↓seems␈α↔to␈α↔come␈α↔closer␈α↔to␈α↔criteria␈α↔for␈α↔"relevant␈α↔work"␈α↔than␈α↔does␈α↔any␈α↔other␈α↔job␈α↔not␈α↔requiring
␈↓ α,␈↓specialized␈α≠training.␈α≠ It␈α≠can␈α≠be␈α≠argued␈α≠that␈α≠desire␈α≠to␈α≠be␈α≠a␈α≠lawyer␈α≠had␈α≠a␈α≠major␈α≠e≥ect␈α≠in
␈↓ α,␈↓expanding the area of lawsuits.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Anyway,␈α→I␈α→would␈α→like␈α→to␈α→know␈α→Professor␈α→Bell's␈α→opinion␈α→on␈α→whether␈α→the␈α→post-industrial
␈↓ α,␈↓society is a technological or a sociological necessity.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|In␈α∀the␈α∀description␈α∀of␈α∀present␈α∀society,␈α∀the␈α∀impression␈α∀of␈α∀crisis␈α∀seems␈α∀somewhat␈α∀overdrawn.
␈↓ α,␈↓In␈α∩particular,␈α∩I␈α∩don't␈α∩believe␈α∩in␈α∩information␈α∩overload.␈α∩ People␈α∩are␈α∩as␈α∩good␈α∩as␈α∩ever␈α∩at␈α∩ignoring
␈↓ α,␈↓what doesn't a≥ect their immediate decisions.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Finally,␈α∂I␈α∂think␈α∂the␈α∂word␈α∂␈↓↓compunication␈↓␈α∂is␈α∂ugly.␈α∂ Moreover,␈α∂it␈α∂presumes␈α∂that␈α∂communication
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∀computation␈α∀are␈α∀inextricably␈α∀mixed.␈α∀ Because␈α∀communication␈α∀is␈α∀a␈α∀natural␈α∀monopoly␈α∀and
␈↓ α,␈↓computation␈α≥is␈α≥not,␈α≥prices␈α≥charged␈α≥for␈α≥raw␈α≥communication␈α≥should␈α≥be␈α≥kept␈α≥separate␈α≥and
␈↓ α,␈↓regulated, while the price and services of computation should be determined by the market.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂012


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ π$Comments on Simon's paper

␈↓ α,␈↓THE␈α8CONSEQUENCES␈α8OF␈α8COMPUTERS␈α8FOR␈α8CENTRALIZATION␈α8AND
␈↓ α,␈↓DECENTRALIZATION by Herbert Simon

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α∂≡nd␈α∂myself␈α∂in␈α∂agreement␈α∂with␈α∂almost␈α∂everything␈α∂in␈α∂this␈α∂lucid␈α∂paper.␈α∂ There␈α∂are␈α∂only␈α∂three
␈↓ α,␈↓points of di≥erence.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α⊗It␈α⊗is␈α⊗not␈α⊗obvious␈α⊗to␈α⊗me␈α⊗that␈α⊗modern␈α⊗society␈α⊗␈↓↓bene≡ts␈↓␈α⊗from␈α⊗the␈α⊗increased␈α⊗power␈α⊗of␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓central␈α∩government.␈α∩ If␈α∩the␈α∩≡fty␈α∩states␈α∩had␈α∩more␈α∩independence,␈α∩there␈α∩would␈α∩be␈α∩costs,␈α∩and␈α∩what
␈↓ α,␈↓they␈α⊂are␈α⊂is␈α⊂well␈α⊂known.␈α⊂ On␈α⊂the␈α⊂other␈α⊂hand,␈α⊂our␈α⊂present␈α⊂centralization␈α⊂means␈α⊂that␈α⊂fewer␈α⊂energy
␈↓ α,␈↓policies␈α∪will␈α∪be␈α∪tried,␈α∪and␈α∪this␈α∩reduces␈α∪the␈α∪probability␈α∪that␈α∪some␈α∪state␈α∪will␈α∪≡nd␈α∪a␈α∪near␈α∪optimal
␈↓ α,␈↓policy.  The recent nationalization of educational policy is really a tragedy.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α→A␈α→corporation␈α→or␈α→government␈α→agency␈α→may␈α→centralize␈α→or␈α→decentralize␈α→according␈α→to␈α→its
␈↓ α,␈↓leaders'␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂of␈α⊂how␈α⊂to␈α⊂achieve␈α⊂the␈α⊂organization's␈α⊂goals.␈α⊂ Its␈α⊂employees␈α⊂have␈α⊂agreed␈α⊂to␈α⊂do␈α⊂what
␈↓ α,␈↓they␈α_are␈α_told␈α_within␈α_certain␈α_limits.␈α_ However,␈α_a␈α_citizen␈α_has␈α_certain␈α_rights␈α_to␈α_dispose␈α_of␈α_his
␈↓ α,␈↓person,␈α∀his␈α∀time␈α∀and␈α∀his␈α∀property␈α∀as␈α∀he␈α∀wishes,␈α∀and␈α∀this␈α∀often␈α∀dictates␈α∀decentralization␈α∀when
␈↓ α,␈↓centralization␈α_would␈α_better␈α_achieve␈α_even␈α_agreed␈α_goals.␈α_ It␈α_is␈α_not␈α_entirely␈α_the␈α_prerogative␈α_of
␈↓ α,␈↓government␈α⊗or␈α⊗social␈α⊗scientists␈α⊗to␈α⊗structure␈α⊗people's␈α⊗motivations␈α⊗so␈α⊗as␈α⊗to␈α⊗achieve␈α⊗a␈α⊗"national
␈↓ α,␈↓goal".␈α⊂ Subgroups␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂population␈α⊂may␈α⊂also␈α⊂have␈α⊂rights␈α⊂of␈α⊂self-determination␈α⊂so␈α⊂that␈α⊂a␈α⊂slogan
␈↓ α,␈↓of "states' rights" is not necessarily meaningless.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α∪Electronic␈α∪voting␈α∪from␈α∪the␈α∪home␈α∪is␈α∪too␈α∪quickly␈α∪dismissed␈α∪as␈α∪beside␈α∪the␈α∪point.␈α∪ Suppose
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊃all␈α⊃public␈α⊃statements␈α⊃are␈α⊃immediately␈α⊃available␈α⊃-␈α⊃suitably␈α⊃indexed␈α⊃so␈α⊃that,␈α⊃for␈α⊃example,␈α⊃on
␈↓ α,␈↓reading␈α∂the␈α∂President's␈α∂speech,␈α∂a␈α∂citizen␈α∂can␈α∂immediately␈α∂ask␈α∂his␈α∂terminal,␈α∂␈↓↓"Who,␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂opposite
␈↓ α,␈↓↓party,␈α∂has␈α∂commented␈α∂on␈α∂that?"␈↓.␈α∂ Suppose␈α∂further␈α∂that␈α∂every␈α∂citizen␈α∂has␈α∂a␈α∂right␈α∂to␈α∂introduce␈α∂bills
␈↓ α,␈↓in␈α⊂Congress,␈α⊂but␈α⊂bills␈α⊂need␈α⊂a␈α⊂some␈α⊂millions␈α⊂of␈α⊂sponsors␈α⊂to␈α⊂reach␈α⊂a␈α⊂vote.␈α⊂ Suppose␈α⊂that␈α⊂votes␈α⊂can
␈↓ α,␈↓be␈α∀delegated␈α∀and␈α∀redelegated,␈α∀and␈α∀anyone␈α∀with␈α∀500,000␈α∀votes␈α∀can␈α∀have␈α∀an␈α∀o≠ce␈α∀and␈α∀sta≥␈α∀in
␈↓ α,␈↓Washington␈α∪and␈α∪call␈α∪himself␈α∪a␈α∪Congressman.␈α∪ Suppose␈α∪≡nally␈α∪that␈α∪a␈α∪citizen␈α∪can␈α∪cast␈α∪his␈α∪own
␈↓ α,␈↓vote␈α⊂or␈α⊂redelegate␈α⊂it␈α⊂whenever␈α⊂he␈α⊂feels␈α⊂so␈α⊂inclined.␈α⊂ Such␈α⊂a␈α⊂system␈α⊂might␈α⊂not␈α⊂be␈α⊂better␈α⊂than␈α⊂the
␈↓ α,␈↓present␈α∂one,␈α∂but␈α∂it␈α∂would␈α∂certainly␈α∂be␈α∂di≥erent,␈α∂and␈α∂it␈α∂would␈α∂encourage␈α∂political␈α∂participation.␈α∂ I
␈↓ α,␈↓would␈α∩like␈α∩to␈α∩see␈α∩it␈α∩tried,␈α∩and␈α∩I␈α∩would␈α∩bet␈α∩that␈α∩initial␈α∩instability␈α∩would␈α∩damp␈α∩out,␈α∩and␈α∩then␈α∩it
␈↓ α,␈↓would␈α_work␈α_very␈α_well.␈α_ Even␈α_in␈α_such␈α_a␈α_system,␈α_e≥ective␈α_ability␈α_to␈α_de≡ne␈α_the␈α_issues,␈α_would
␈↓ α,␈↓remain in the hands of small numbers of people.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂013


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εWCOMMENTS ON GILPIN'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Professor␈α⊗Gilpin␈α⊗looks␈α⊗for␈α⊗evidence␈α⊗of␈α⊗the␈α⊗importance␈α⊗of␈α⊗the␈α⊗computer␈α⊗in␈α⊗world␈α⊗a≥airs.
␈↓ α,␈↓Apart␈α_from␈α_the␈α_fact␈α_that␈α_computers␈α_are␈α_one␈α_more␈α_cost-reducing␈α_technology␈α_he␈α_doesn't␈α_≡nd
␈↓ α,␈↓much,␈α∩and␈α∩I␈α∩must␈α∩confess␈α∩skepticism␈α∩about␈α∩what␈α∩he␈α∩does␈α∩≡nd.␈α∩ I␈α∩believe␈α∩that␈α∩the␈α∩international
␈↓ α,␈↓≡nancial␈α→clearing␈α→system␈α→would␈α→work␈α_without␈α→computers;␈α→it␈α→has␈α→many␈α→fewer␈α→transactions␈α→to
␈↓ α,␈↓handle␈α≤than␈α≤domestic␈α≤clearing␈α≠houses.␈α≤ I␈α≤also␈α≤believe␈α≤the␈α≤Arab␈α≤oil␈α≤embargo␈α≤would␈α≤have
␈↓ α,␈↓functioned␈α∩just␈α∩as␈α∩well␈α∩without␈α∩computers␈α∩to␈α∩keep␈α∩track␈α∩of␈α∩who␈α∩was␈α∩selling␈α∩what␈α∩oil␈α∩to␈α∩whom.
␈↓ α,␈↓He then tells about multinational corporations, and I have just one doubt.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|It␈α≠seems␈α≠to␈α≠me␈α≠that␈α≠corporations␈α≠can␈α≠function␈α≠only␈α≠when␈α≠contracts␈α≠are␈α≠enforced,␈α≠and
␈↓ α,␈↓multinational␈α∩corporations␈α∩can␈α∩function␈α∩only␈α∩when␈α∩international␈α∩contracts␈α∩are␈α∩enforced␈α∩-␈α∩either
␈↓ α,␈↓by␈α∀nations␈α∀internally,␈α∀by␈α∀powerful␈α∀nations␈α∀or␈α∀by␈α∀an␈α∀international␈α∀mechanism.␈α∀ When␈α∀a␈α∀mini-
␈↓ α,␈↓state,␈α∂whose␈α∂GNP␈α∂is␈α∂a␈α∂thousandth␈α∂of␈α∂General␈α∂Motors␈α∂annual␈α∂sales,␈α∂shoots␈α∂the␈α∂Chevy␈α∂dealer␈α∂and
␈↓ α,␈↓con≡scates␈α∂all␈α∂the␈α∂cars,␈α∂there␈α∂is␈α∂nothing␈α∂GM␈α∂can␈α∂do␈α∂except␈α∂stay␈α∂away␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂future.␈α∂ On␈α∂a␈α∂larger
␈↓ α,␈↓scale,␈α∀the␈α∀OPEC␈α∀succeeded␈α∀in␈α∀quadrupling␈α∀prices,␈α∀because␈α∀the␈α∀West␈α∀lost␈α∀its␈α∀moral␈α∀conviction
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊃the␈α⊃enterprise␈α⊃and␈α⊃inventiveness␈α⊃that␈α⊃found␈α⊃the␈α⊃oil,␈α⊃found␈α⊃the␈α⊃markets,␈α⊃and␈α⊃developed␈α⊃the
␈↓ α,␈↓industry␈α∩entitled␈α∩it␈α∩to␈α∩enforce␈α∩the␈α∩agreements␈α∩on␈α∩which␈α∩the␈α∩industry␈α∩was␈α∩based.␈α∩ To␈α∩the␈α∩extent
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊂contracts␈α⊂can␈α⊂no␈α⊂longer␈α⊂be␈α⊂made,␈α⊂the␈α⊂world␈α⊂must␈α⊂revert␈α⊂to␈α⊂more␈α⊂primitive␈α⊂economic␈α⊂forms,
␈↓ α,␈↓e.g.␈α→barter.␈α→ The␈α→U.S.␈α→ may␈α_have␈α→to␈α→obtain␈α→its␈α→energy␈α→domestically␈α→even␈α→when␈α→investing␈α→to
␈↓ α,␈↓develop foreign resources would be mutually bene≡cial.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|He␈α∩then␈α∩goes␈α∩on␈α∩to␈α∩consider␈α∩the␈α∩military␈α∩consequences␈α∩of␈α∩computers␈α∩and␈α∩doesn't␈α∩≡nd␈α∩very
␈↓ α,␈↓much.␈α⊗ I␈α⊗agree␈α⊗that␈α⊗up␈α⊗to␈α⊗now,␈α⊗computers␈α⊗have␈α⊗been␈α⊗just␈α⊗one␈α⊗more␈α⊗technology.␈α⊗ High␈α⊗level
␈↓ α,␈↓arti≡cial␈α∪intelligence␈α∪will␈α∪transform␈α∪all␈α∪power␈α∪relationships,␈α∪but␈α∪we␈α∪can't␈α∪now␈α∪tell␈α∪whether␈α∪it␈α∪is
␈↓ α,␈↓≡ve␈α∃years␈α∃away␈α∃or␈α∃≡ve␈α∃hundred.␈α∃ To␈α∃make␈α∃an␈α∃analogy␈α∃with␈α∃nuclear␈α∃physics,␈α∃we␈α∃don't␈α∃know
␈↓ α,␈↓whether it is now 1905 or 1935.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂014


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εjCOMMENTS ON NOLL'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α∪agree␈α∪with␈α∪Noll's␈α∪argument␈α∪that␈α∪government␈α∪regulation␈α∪of␈α∪computing␈α∪will␈α∪tend␈α∪to␈α∪create
␈↓ α,␈↓cartels and prematurely rigidify the structure of the information industry.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Namely,␈α_it␈α_cannot␈α_now␈α_be␈α_known␈α_what␈α_combinations␈α_of␈α_home␈α_computers,␈α_time-sharing,
␈↓ α,␈↓specialized␈α≥communication,␈α≥telephonic␈α≥communication,␈α≥private␈α≥networks,␈α≥public␈α≥data␈α≥bases,
␈↓ α,␈↓private␈α∩data␈α∩bases␈α∩in␈α∩public␈α∩computers,␈α∩and␈α∩private␈α∩data␈α∩bases␈α∩in␈α∩private␈α∩computers␈α∩will␈α∩work
␈↓ α,␈↓out␈α⊗best␈α⊗for␈α⊗the␈α⊗users␈α⊗of␈α⊗intormation␈α⊗services.␈α⊗ This␈α⊗is␈α⊗because␈α⊗it␈α⊗isn't␈α⊗known␈α⊗what␈α⊗services
␈↓ α,␈↓individuals,␈α∀businesses␈α∀and␈α∀other␈α∀institutions␈α∀will␈α∀want␈α∀and␈α∀what␈α∀they␈α∀will␈α∀be␈α∀willing␈α∀to␈α∀pay.
␈↓ α,␈↓Any␈α⊂attempt␈α⊂at␈α⊂regulation␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊂near␈α∂future␈α⊂is␈α⊂likely␈α⊂to␈α⊂split␈α⊂o≥␈α⊂the␈α⊂service␈α⊂to␈α⊂be␈α⊂regulated␈α⊂and
␈↓ α,␈↓require it to be separately priced.  Let me give two examples:

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α∩The␈α∩␈↓↓New␈α∩York␈α∩Times␈↓␈α∩proposed␈α∩that␈α∩electronic␈α∩mail␈α∩be␈α∩a␈α∩function␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩Postal␈α∩Service.
␈↓ α,␈↓One␈α∩may␈α∩imagine␈α∩that␈α∩the␈α∩Postal␈α∩Service␈α∩would␈α∩be␈α∩glad␈α∩to␈α∩have␈α∩it␈α∩as␈α∩an␈α∩extension␈α∩of␈α∩its␈α∩≡rst
␈↓ α,␈↓class␈α∃mail␈α∃monopoly␈α∃and␈α∃not␈α∃otherwise.␈α∃ However,␈α∃a␈α∃hobbyist's␈α∃home␈α∃computer␈α∃is␈α∃capable␈α∃of
␈↓ α,␈↓sending␈α∪electronic␈α∪mail␈α∪to␈α∪any␈α∪other␈α∪home␈α∪computer␈α∪over␈α∪the␈α∪telephone␈α∪network␈α∪once␈α∪suitable
␈↓ α,␈↓protocols␈α⊂have␈α⊂been␈α⊂adopted.␈α⊂ Moreover,␈α⊂the␈α⊂business␈α⊂use␈α⊂of␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂mail␈α⊂will␈α⊂be␈α⊂inextricably
␈↓ α,␈↓intertwined␈α⊂with␈α⊂other␈α⊂inter-business␈α⊂communications.␈α⊂ For␈α⊂example,␈α⊂we␈α⊂envisage␈α⊂Company␈α⊂A's
␈↓ α,␈↓inventory␈α⊂control␈α⊂computer␈α⊂initiating␈α⊂a␈α⊂dialog␈α⊂with␈α⊂Company␈α⊂B's␈α⊂computer␈α⊂leading␈α⊂to␈α⊂an␈α⊂order
␈↓ α,␈↓for␈α∃ten␈α∃thousand␈α∃pencils␈α∃if␈α∃the␈α∃price␈α∃is␈α∃mutually␈α∃agreeable.␈α∃ Such␈α∃a␈α∃dialog␈α∃may␈α∃involve␈α∃≡ve
␈↓ α,␈↓interchanges␈α∀of␈α∀messages␈α∀per␈α∀second␈α∀for␈α∀a␈α∀few␈α∀seconds.␈α∀ I␈α∀would␈α∀bet␈α∀that␈α∀the␈α∀service␈α∀initially
␈↓ α,␈↓o≥ered␈α⊂by␈α⊂the␈α⊂Postal␈α⊂Service␈α⊂wouldn't␈α⊂to␈α⊂this␈α⊂economically,␈α⊂because␈α⊂they␈α⊂wouldn't␈α⊂think␈α⊂of␈α⊂it␈α⊂at
␈↓ α,␈↓≡rst,␈α_and␈α_it␈α_wouldn't␈α_be␈α_important␈α_at␈α_≡rst.␈α_ On␈α_the␈α_other␈α_hand,␈α_an␈α_attempt␈α_to␈α_write␈α_a␈α_law
␈↓ α,␈↓extending␈α⊃the␈α⊃Postal␈α⊃Service's␈α⊃mail␈α⊃monopoly␈α⊃to␈α⊃electronic␈α⊃mail␈α⊃would␈α⊃undoubtedly␈α⊃cover␈α⊃such
␈↓ α,␈↓communication unless someone thought to exclude it.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α⊂The␈α⊂present␈α⊂laws␈α⊂concerning␈α⊂credit␈α⊂data␈α⊂bases␈α⊂will␈α⊂give␈α⊂troubles␈α⊂in␈α⊂interpretation␈α⊂as␈α⊂soon
␈↓ α,␈↓as␈α↔people␈α↔start␈α↔using␈α↔computer␈α↔≡les␈α↔to␈α↔store␈α↔mail␈α↔-␈α↔as␈α↔many␈α↔users␈α↔of␈α↔ARPAnet␈α↔already␈α↔do.
␈↓ α,␈↓When␈α⊃is␈α⊃a␈α⊃remark␈α⊃in␈α⊃a␈α⊃letter␈α⊃that␈α⊃someone␈α⊃didn't␈α⊃pay␈α⊃his␈α⊃bill␈α⊃to␈α⊃be␈α⊃regarded␈α⊃as␈α⊃adverse␈α⊃credit
␈↓ α,␈↓information␈α⊃that␈α⊃must␈α⊃be␈α⊃found␈α⊃and␈α⊃produced␈α⊃when␈α⊃the␈α⊃individual␈α⊃asks␈α⊃for␈α⊃his␈α⊃credit␈α⊃records.
␈↓ α,␈↓Most␈α↔likely,␈α↔the␈α↔people␈α↔to␈α↔whom␈α↔the␈α↔request␈α↔is␈α↔directed␈α↔won't␈α↔even␈α↔know␈α↔of␈α↔the␈α↔remark␈α↔in
␈↓ α,␈↓someone else's correspondence ≡le.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂015


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ π≡Comments on Shubik's paper

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Professor␈α⊃Shubik␈α⊃is␈α⊃precisely␈α⊃right␈α⊃in␈α⊃saying␈α⊃that␈α⊃the␈α⊃goal␈α⊃of␈α⊃computer␈α⊃modelling␈α⊃of␈α⊃social
␈↓ α,␈↓phenomena␈α∀should␈α∀be␈α∀to␈α∀increase␈α∀both␈α∀democracy␈α∀and␈α∀individual␈α∀freedom,␈α∀and␈α∀I␈α∀agree␈α∀with
␈↓ α,␈↓him␈α⊂that␈α⊂there␈α⊂are␈α⊂great␈α⊂potentialities.␈α⊂ I␈α⊂wish␈α⊂he␈α⊂would␈α⊂elaborate␈α⊂his␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂on␈α⊂how␈α⊂to␈α⊂␈↓↓"improve
␈↓ α,␈↓↓the␈α~scope␈α~of␈α~individuality"␈↓.␈α~ Unfortunately,␈α~few␈α~will␈α~be␈α~convinced␈α~by␈α~the␈α~article␈α~itself␈α~that
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α⊃modelling␈α⊃will␈α⊃contribute␈α⊃much␈α⊃to␈α⊃these␈α⊃goals␈α⊃in␈α⊃the␈α⊃immediate␈α⊃future,␈α⊃because␈α⊃there
␈↓ α,␈↓isn't␈α∃enough␈α∃information␈α∃about␈α∃the␈α∃actual␈α∃successes␈α∃and␈α∃failures␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃computer␈α∃simulations
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α&have␈α&been␈α&attempted␈α&and␈α&the␈α&prospects␈α&for␈α&the␈α&near␈α&future.␈α& Modelling␈α&duels
␈↓ α,␈↓mathematically␈α∩and␈α∩solving␈α∩the␈α∩travelling␈α∩salesman␈α∩problem␈α⊃by␈α∩computer␈α∩just␈α∩can't␈α∩convince␈α∩a
␈↓ α,␈↓reader that society can now be usefully modelled.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|This␈α∪unconvinced␈α∪reader␈α∪will␈α∪be␈α∪further␈α∪distressed␈α∪by␈α∪the␈α∪remarks␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪introduction␈α∪to
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α~e≥ect␈α~that␈α~unless␈α~advances␈α~are␈α~made␈α~in␈α~modelling,␈α~society␈α~won't␈α~survive.␈α~ Thus␈α~␈↓↓"This
␈↓ α,␈↓↓technology␈α⊃is␈α⊃a␈α⊃necessary␈α⊃...␈α⊃condition␈α⊃for␈α⊃the␈α⊃survival␈α⊃...␈α⊃of␈α⊃modern␈α⊃high␈α⊃technology␈α⊃mass␈α⊃societies
␈↓ α,␈↓↓which␈α∃wish␈α∃to␈α∃preserve␈α∃democratic␈α∃and␈α∃libertarian␈α∃values"␈↓.␈α∃ Is␈α∃this␈α∃just␈α∃a␈α∃routine␈α∃pu≥␈α∃for␈α∃the
␈↓ α,␈↓author's␈α⊗topic␈α⊗or␈α⊗can␈α⊗the␈α⊗author␈α⊗identify␈α⊗some␈α⊗ongoing␈α⊗process␈α⊗that␈α⊗will␈α⊗destroy␈α⊗our␈α⊗society
␈↓ α,␈↓unless␈α≤computer␈α≤modelling␈α≤wins␈α≤its␈α≤race␈α≤with␈α≤chaos?␈α≤ Weizenbaum␈α≤(␈↓↓Computer␈α≤Power␈α≤and
␈↓ α,␈↓↓Human␈α⊃Reason␈↓)␈α⊃also␈α⊃says␈α⊃that␈α⊃computers␈α⊃have␈α⊃saved␈α⊃or␈α⊃will␈α⊃save␈α⊃society␈α⊃from␈α⊃collapse.␈α⊃ While
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α∃modelling␈α∃and␈α∃other␈α∃uses␈α∃of␈α∃computers␈α∃will␈α∃improve␈α∃our␈α∃society,␈α∃no␈α∃case␈α∃has␈α∃been
␈↓ α,␈↓made␈α_that␈α_we␈α_can't␈α_bumble␈α_along␈α_as␈α_long␈α_as␈α_necessary␈α_without␈α_much␈α_help␈α_from␈α_computer
␈↓ α,␈↓modelling.␈α⊂ Except␈α⊂that␈α⊂we␈α⊂must␈α⊂adapt␈α⊂our␈α⊂technology␈α⊂to␈α⊂lower␈α⊂grade␈α⊂ores,␈α⊂I␈α⊂don't␈α⊂see␈α⊂any␈α⊂sense
␈↓ α,␈↓in which our society is "riding a tiger".

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α⊂also␈α⊂don't␈α⊂understand,␈α⊂␈↓↓"This␈α⊂is␈α⊂a␈α⊂raw␈α⊂data␈α⊂rich␈α⊂but␈α⊂information␈α⊂poor␈α⊂society."␈↓␈α⊂Compared␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓what?

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Why are intelligent machines closer than wise or skeptical machines?
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂016


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εNCOMMENTS ON ARROW'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I have no comment on this paper.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂017


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εXCOMMENTS ON NOYCE'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Dr.␈α≤Noyce's␈α≤projection␈α≤of␈α≤the␈α≤development␈α≤of␈α≤digital␈α≤electronics␈α≤is␈α≤entirely␈α≤believable.
␈↓ α,␈↓Clearly␈α∂the␈α∂harware␈α∂will␈α∂support␈α∂all␈α∂the␈α∂new␈α∂applications␈α∂of␈α∂computing␈α∂envisioned␈α∂in␈α∂this␈α∂book.
␈↓ α,␈↓I would like, however, to ask for something more from the hardware side.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|At␈α~present,␈α~and␈α~in␈α~Noyce's␈α~projection,␈α~large␈α~scale␈α~integrated␈α~circuits␈α~are␈α~major␈α~design
␈↓ α,␈↓projects␈α→and␈α→require␈α→large␈α→scale␈α→manufacture␈α→to␈α→achieve␈α→reasonable␈α→economy.␈α→ ␈↓↓What␈α→is␈α→the
␈↓ α,␈↓↓prospect␈α_of␈α_developing␈α_a␈α_technology␈α_that␈α_can␈α_make␈α_small␈α_numbers␈α_of␈α_complicated␈α_large␈α_scale
␈↓ α,␈↓↓integrated␈α#circuits␈α#economically␈↓?␈α# Preferably,␈α#the␈α#equipment␈α#should␈α#be␈α#usable␈α#by␈α#small
␈↓ α,␈↓organizations.␈α∃ The␈α∃The␈α∃technology␈α∃being␈α∃replaced␈α∃by␈α∃large␈α∃scale␈α∃integration␈α∃which␈α∃involves
␈↓ α,␈↓mounting␈α∀integrated␈α∀circuits␈α∀on␈α∀printed␈α∀circuit␈α∀boards␈α∀is␈α∀accessible␈α∀to␈α∀small␈α∀organizations␈α∀and
␈↓ α,␈↓even␈α≠to␈α≠individuals.␈α≠ It␈α≠would␈α≠be␈α≠unfortunate␈α≠to␈α≠lose␈α≠this␈α≠capability␈α≠permanently.␈α≠ Micro-
␈↓ α,␈↓processors help but do not completely solve the problem.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|We␈α∩understand␈α∩the␈α∩fundamental␈α∩limitations␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩performance␈α∩of␈α∩semi-conductor␈α∩circuits.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓↓Are␈α∀there␈α∀corresponding␈α∀fundamental␈α∀limits␈α∀to␈α∀small-scale␈α∀manufacture␈↓?␈α∀ If␈α∀the␈α∀manufacturing
␈↓ α,␈↓equipment can be developed, the problem of economical design will also be solved.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂018


␈↓ α,␈↓COMMENTS ON EVANS'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Evans's␈α∀discussion␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀interaction␈α∀of␈α∀computers␈α∀and␈α∀communications␈α∀concentrates␈α∀on␈α∀a
␈↓ α,␈↓survey␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂communication␈α∂techniques␈α∂available␈α∂and␈α∂likely␈α∂to␈α∂be␈α∂available␈α∂for␈α∂communication
␈↓ α,␈↓between␈α→computers.␈α→ However,␈α→it␈α→seems␈α→to␈α→me␈α→that␈α→the␈α→factors␈α→presently␈α→limiting␈α→computer-
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α_communication␈α_(more␈α_properly␈α_process-process␈α_communication)␈α_are␈α_not␈α_mainly␈α_the
␈↓ α,␈↓hardware␈α∀provided␈α∀by␈α∀the␈α∀communication␈α∀companies.␈α∀ More␈α∀important␈α∀factors␈α∀are␈α∀(i)␈α∀lack␈α∀of
␈↓ α,␈↓protocols␈α∂for␈α∂message,␈α∂≡le,␈α∂and␈α∂terminal␈α∂simulation␈α∂communication␈α∂over␈α∂the␈α∂dial-up␈α∂network,␈α∂(ii)
␈↓ α,␈↓lack␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂common␈α⊂language␈α⊂for␈α⊂expressing␈α⊂business␈α⊂communications,␈α⊂and␈α⊂(iv)␈α⊂lack␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂national
␈↓ α,␈↓≡le␈α_naming␈α_and␈α_program␈α_naming␈α_system.␈α_ Alas,␈α_these␈α_problems␈α_are␈α_not␈α_yet␈α_being␈α_seriously
␈↓ α,␈↓addressed.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂019


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εDCOMMENTS ON DENICOFF PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Marvin␈α∀Denico≥␈α∀does␈α∀a␈α∀real␈α∀service␈α∀in␈α∀attempting␈α∀a␈α∀history␈α∀of␈α∀computing,␈α∀and␈α∀his␈α∀topics
␈↓ α,␈↓are␈α⊃well␈α⊃chosen.␈α⊃ However,␈α⊃it␈α⊃is␈α⊃one␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃≡rst␈α⊃attempts␈α⊃and␈α⊃naturally␈α⊃encounters␈α⊃disagreement
␈↓ α,␈↓from other participants and observers.  Here are mine:

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α→The␈α→≡fties␈α→were␈α→more␈α→optimistic␈α→years␈α→than␈α→the␈α→seventies␈α→and␈α→not␈α→only␈α→in␈α→computer
␈↓ α,␈↓science.␈α_ However,␈α_the␈α_picture␈α_drawn␈α_by␈α_Denico≥␈α_doesn't␈α_do␈α_justice␈α_to␈α_the␈α_varied␈α_opinions
␈↓ α,␈↓extant␈α_at␈α_that␈α_time␈α_about␈α_the␈α_probabilities␈α_of␈α_success␈α_of␈α_various␈α_endeavors␈α_in␈α_given␈α_times.
␈↓ α,␈↓When␈α∪asked␈α∪for␈α∪a␈α∪prediction␈α∪of␈α∪how␈α∪soon␈α∪a␈α∪research␈α∪or␈α∪development␈α∪goal␈α∪will␈α∪be␈α∪realized,␈α∪a
␈↓ α,␈↓scientist␈α∩is␈α∩bound␈α∩to␈α∩give␈α∩an␈α∩optimistic␈α∩answer␈α∩if␈α∩he␈α∩takes␈α∩into␈α∩account␈α∩only␈α∩di≠culties␈α∩that␈α∩he
␈↓ α,␈↓recognizes.␈α∩ Therefore,␈α∩he␈α∩should␈α∩cautiously␈α∩answer␈α∩that␈α∩if␈α∩the␈α∩di≠culties␈α∩he␈α∩sees␈α∩are␈α∩all␈α∩there
␈↓ α,␈↓are, it will take ␈↓↓n␈↓ years.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α⊂Denico≥'s␈α⊂history␈α⊂of␈α⊂time-sharing␈α⊂assigns␈α⊂to␈α⊂little␈α⊂credit␈α⊂to␈α⊂Corbato␈α⊂(who␈α⊂initiated␈α⊂CTSS)
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∩me␈α∩and␈α∩too␈α∩much␈α∩to␈α∩Strachey␈α∩(read␈α∩his␈α∩1959␈α∩paper),␈α∩Teager,␈α∩and␈α∩Fano.␈α∩ Institutionally,␈α∩it
␈↓ α,␈↓neglects␈α⊃the␈α⊃IBM␈α⊃and␈α⊃NSF␈α⊃support␈α⊃of␈α⊂early␈α⊃time-sharing␈α⊃at␈α⊃M.I.T.␈α⊃and␈α⊃N.I.H.␈α⊃support␈α⊃of␈α⊃time-
␈↓ α,␈↓sharing␈α→at␈α→BBN.␈α→ Administratively,␈α→Philip␈α→Morse␈α→and␈α→J.C.R.␈α→Licklider␈α→also␈α→deserve␈α→credit.
␈↓ α,␈↓Fredkin␈α∂deserves␈α∂credit␈α∂for␈α∂recognizing␈α∂that␈α∂time-sharing␈α∂was␈α∂feasible␈α∂on␈α∂a␈α∂computer␈α∂as␈α∂small␈α∂as
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α⊃PDP-1␈α⊃and␈α⊃devising␈α⊃most␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃hardware␈α⊃modi≡cations␈α⊃required␈α⊃to␈α⊃make␈α⊃it␈α⊃feasible.␈α⊃ The
␈↓ α,␈↓importance␈α→of␈α→MULTICS␈α→is␈α→exaggerated;␈α→it␈α→never␈α→produced␈α→cost-e≥ective␈α→time-sharing␈α→and
␈↓ α,␈↓neither␈α∩did␈α∩the␈α∩IBM␈α∩TSS␈α∩e≥ort.␈α∩ Denico≥␈α∩inexplicably␈α∩totally␈α∩ignores␈α∩the␈α∩PDP-6␈α∩and␈α∩PDP-10
␈↓ α,␈↓computers␈α∀which␈α∀initiated␈α∀cost-e≥ective␈α∀time-sharing␈α∀and␈α∀whose␈α∀descendants␈α∀are␈α∀still␈α∀the␈α∀most
␈↓ α,␈↓commonly␈α⊂used␈α⊂time-sharing␈α⊂machines.␈α⊂ Their␈α⊂success␈α⊂compared␈α⊂to␈α⊂MULTICS␈α⊂and␈α⊂TSS␈α⊂is␈α⊂due
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α≡starting␈α≡with␈α≡real␈α≡problems␈α≡rather␈α≡than␈α≡the␈α≡pseudo-problems␈α≡of␈α≡levels␈α≡of␈α≡access␈α≡and
␈↓ α,␈↓segmentation.␈α~ Many␈α~hundreds␈α~of␈α~PDP-10s␈α~are␈α~in␈α~use␈α~compared␈α~to␈α~a␈α~few␈α~dozen␈α~users␈α~of
␈↓ α,␈↓MULTICS and TSS.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α∩Arti≡cial␈α∩intelligence.␈α∩ The␈α∩Dartmouth␈α∩conference␈α∩was␈α∩in␈α∩1956.␈α∩ The␈α∩history␈α∩of␈α∩arti≡cial
␈↓ α,␈↓intelligence␈α∩is␈α∩even␈α∩harder␈α∩to␈α∩write␈α∩than␈α∩that␈α∩of␈α∩time-sharing.␈α∩ Time-sharing␈α∩is␈α∩successful,␈α∩and
␈↓ α,␈↓careful␈α~interviewing␈α~and␈α~reading␈α~will␈α~trace␈α~the␈α~successful␈α~ideas␈α~to␈α~their␈α~sources.␈α~ Arti≡cial
␈↓ α,␈↓intelligence␈α⊂has␈α⊂not␈α⊂yet␈α⊂achieved␈α⊂enough␈α⊂of␈α⊂its␈α⊂goals␈α⊂to␈α⊂make␈α⊂it␈α⊂uncontroversial␈α⊂which␈α⊂activities
␈↓ α,␈↓are␈α→contributions␈α→and␈α→which␈α→are␈α→blind␈α→alleys.␈α→ Moreover,␈α→the␈α→theoretical␈α→foundation␈α→of␈α→the
␈↓ α,␈↓subject␈α∀is␈α∀still␈α∀so␈α∀undeveloped␈α∀that␈α∀it␈α∀can't␈α∀even␈α∀be␈α∀de≡nitively␈α∀said␈α∀what␈α∀the␈α∀basic␈α∀ideas␈α∀are.
␈↓ α,␈↓E.g. is natural language understanding fundamental or a side issue?

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4.␈α∀Software␈α∀development.␈α∀ I␈α∀≡nd␈α∀this␈α∀discussion␈α∀-␈α∀mixing␈α∀issues␈α∀of␈α∀management,␈α∀language
␈↓ α,␈↓and data structure design, and proofs of correctness - rather murky.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|5.␈α∪Large␈α∪≡le␈α∪systems.␈α∪ One␈α∪suspects␈α∪the␈α∪author␈α∪of␈α∪overemphasizing␈α∪activities␈α∪sponsored␈α∪by
␈↓ α,␈↓ONR.␈α∪ The␈α∪pacing␈α∪element␈α∪in␈α∪large␈α∪on-line␈α∪data␈α∪systems␈α∪has␈α∪been␈α∪the␈α∪cost␈α∪of␈α∪disk␈α∪≡le.␈α∪ Now
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α→disk␈α→≡les␈α→are␈α→cheap,␈α→there␈α→can␈α→be␈α→movement␈α→away␈α→from␈α→monthly␈α→batch␈α→processing␈α→of
␈↓ α,␈↓keypunched␈α⊃data␈α⊃to␈α⊃immediate␈α⊃processing␈α⊃of␈α⊃data␈α⊃entered␈α⊃at␈α⊃terminals␈α⊃as␈α⊃soon␈α⊃as␈α⊃it␈α⊃is␈α⊃received
␈↓ α,␈↓with␈α↔immediate␈α↔feedback␈α↔to␈α↔the␈α↔person␈α↔who␈α↔enters␈α↔the␈α↔data.␈α↔ This␈α↔change␈α↔is␈α↔important␈α↔for
␈↓ α,␈↓social␈α∩reasons,␈α∩because␈α∩much␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩rigidity␈α∩and␈α∩mystery␈α∩of␈α∩computer␈α∩systems␈α∩has␈α∩been␈α∩caused
␈↓ α,␈↓by␈α⊃the␈α⊃infeasibility␈α⊃of␈α⊃interrogating␈α⊃and␈α⊃changing␈α⊃data␈α⊃relevant␈α⊃to␈α⊃an␈α⊃individual␈α⊃in␈α⊃the␈α⊃middle
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α∃a␈α∃large␈α∃tape␈α∃library.␈α∃ The␈α∃problem␈α∃may␈α∃be␈α∃important␈α∃enough␈α∃to␈α∃almost␈α∃justify␈α∃outlawing
␈↓ α,␈↓tape-to-tape ≡le processing.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂020


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ π→Comments on Minsky's paper

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|This␈α∃paper␈α∃expresses␈α∃opinions␈α∃about␈α∃many␈α∃subjects␈α∃related␈α∃to␈α∃arti≡cial␈α∃intelligence.␈α∃ The
␈↓ α,␈↓opinions␈α∂are␈α∂based␈α∂on␈α∂Minsky's␈α∂great␈α∂experience␈α∂as␈α∂leader␈α∂of␈α∂one␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂most␈α∂successful␈α∂arti≡cial
␈↓ α,␈↓intelligence␈α⊗laboratories␈α⊗and␈α⊗merit␈α⊗respect␈α⊗for␈α⊗that␈α⊗reason.␈α⊗ Nevertheless,␈α⊗it␈α⊗seems␈α⊗to␈α⊗me␈α⊗that
␈↓ α,␈↓many␈α∃are␈α∃not␈α∃su≠ciently␈α∃supported␈α∃by␈α∃arguments␈α∃presented␈α∃in␈α∃the␈α∃paper␈α∃itself,␈α∃and␈α∃some␈α∃of
␈↓ α,␈↓them␈α∂seem␈α∂to␈α∂me␈α∂insu≠ciently␈α∂clearly␈α∂formulated.␈α∂ In␈α∂this␈α∂commentary␈α∂I␈α∂will␈α∂list␈α∂some␈α∂I␈α∂disagree
␈↓ α,␈↓with,␈α some␈α I␈α agree␈α with␈α (especially␈α when␈α I␈α have␈α something␈α to␈α add),␈α and␈α some␈α whose
␈↓ α,␈↓formulations␈α⊂I␈α⊂don't␈α⊂understand,␈α⊂and␈α⊂I␈α⊂will␈α⊂try␈α⊂to␈α⊂give␈α⊂reasons␈α⊂for␈α⊂my␈α⊂opinions.␈α⊂ It␈α⊂is␈α⊂a␈α⊂measure
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α∩the␈α∩present␈α∩weakness␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩theory␈α⊃of␈α∩intelligence␈α∩that␈α∩so␈α∩many␈α∩important␈α∩topics␈α∩have␈α∩to␈α∩be
␈↓ α,␈↓treated in this way as matters of opinion.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∃two␈α∃main␈α∃sections␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃paper␈α∃are␈α∃a␈α∃history␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃progress␈α∃of␈α∃ideas␈α∃in␈α∃AI␈α∃and␈α∃a
␈↓ α,␈↓discussion of the representation of knowledge.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∪events␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪history␈α∪seem␈α∪correctly␈α∪reported,␈α∪but␈α∪I␈α∪am␈α∪somewhat␈α∪doubtful␈α∪about␈α∪the
␈↓ α,␈↓picture␈α∀of␈α∀steady␈α∀progress␈α∀presented␈α∀in␈α∀the␈α∀historical␈α∀section.␈α∀ All␈α∀the␈α∀problems␈α∀solved␈α∀are␈α∀in
␈↓ α,␈↓miniature␈α↔versions␈α↔and␈α↔haven't␈α↔yet␈α↔led␈α↔to␈α↔a␈α↔convincing␈α↔theory␈α↔of␈α↔the␈α↔phenomena␈α↔involved.
␈↓ α,␈↓Therefore,␈α→I␈α→think␈α→the␈α→same␈α→problems␈α→will␈α→have␈α→to␈α→be␈α→solved␈α→again␈α→and␈α→again␈α→until␈α→such
␈↓ α,␈↓theories are developed.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Unlike␈α∪the␈α∪hostile␈α∪critics␈α∪of␈α∪AI,␈α∪e.g.␈α∪Dreyfus,␈α∪Lighthill␈α∪and␈α∪Weizenbaum,␈α∪I␈α∪regard␈α∪this␈α∪as
␈↓ α,␈↓normal for so di≠cult a scienti≡c problem and no reason to be discouraged.

␈↓ α,␈↓Creativity

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Can␈α⊂a␈α⊂machine␈α⊂do␈α⊂more␈α⊂than␈α⊂its␈α⊂designer?␈α⊂ No!␈α⊂ A␈α⊂machine␈α⊂or␈α⊂program␈α⊂can␈α⊂do␈α⊂nothing␈α⊂in
␈↓ α,␈↓a␈α∪second␈α∪its␈α∪designer␈α∪couldn't␈α∪do␈α∪in␈α∪a␈α∪year␈α∪if␈α∪he␈α∪weren't␈α∪so␈α∪lazy␈α∪-␈α∪except␈α∪in␈α∪a␈α∪few␈α∪specialized
␈↓ α,␈↓arithmetic␈α≠areas␈α≠where␈α≠it␈α≠might␈α≠take␈α≠the␈α≠programmer␈α≠a␈α≠hundred␈α≠years␈α≠to␈α≠do␈α≠a␈α≠second's
␈↓ α,␈↓calculation.␈α∀ I␈α∀personally␈α∀feel␈α∀the␈α∀shortage␈α∀of␈α∀time␈α∀and␈α∀mental␈α∀energy␈α∀very␈α∀acutely␈α∀and␈α∀think
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊗if␈α⊗the␈α⊗present␈α⊗state␈α⊗of␈α⊗AI␈α⊗permitted␈α⊗me␈α⊗to␈α⊗really␈α⊗multiply␈α⊗my␈α⊗mental␈α⊗e≥orts␈α⊗by␈α⊗even␈α⊗a
␈↓ α,␈↓hundred, let alone ten million, I would accomplish great things.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Nevertheless,␈α≠I␈α≠think␈α≠that␈α≠there␈α≠really␈α≠is␈α≠a␈α≠worthwhile␈α≠concept␈α≠of␈α≠creativity␈α≠and␈α≠that
␈↓ α,␈↓creativity␈α∃is␈α∃not␈α∃just␈α∃those␈α∃things␈α∃we␈α∃haven't␈α∃yet␈α∃programmed.␈α∃ In␈α∃my␈α∃view,␈α∃creativity␈α∃is␈α∃the
␈↓ α,␈↓introduction␈α∂of␈α∂a␈α∂new␈α∂element␈α∂into␈α∂a␈α∂mental␈α∂situation␈α∂-␈α∂where␈α∂new␈α∂means␈α∂that␈α∂the␈α∂element␈α∂is␈α∂not
␈↓ α,␈↓constructed in certain standard ways from the what has already been considered.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|My␈α∂favorite␈α∂example␈α∂is␈α∂proving␈α∂it␈α∂impossible␈α∂to␈α∂tile␈α∂with␈α∂dominoes␈α∂a␈α∂checkerboard␈α∂with␈α∂the
␈↓ α,␈↓two␈α↔white␈α↔corner␈α↔squares␈α↔removed.␈α↔ The␈α↔idea␈α↔is␈α↔to␈α↔count␈α↔the␈α↔numbers␈α↔of␈α↔black␈α↔and␈α↔white
␈↓ α,␈↓squares␈α∞that␈α∂must␈α∂be␈α∂covered␈α∂.␈α∂I␈α∂consider␈α∞this␈α∂idea␈α∂new␈α∂and␈α∂creative␈α∂relative␈α∂to␈α∂the␈α∂concepts␈α∂that
␈↓ α,␈↓arise␈α∀directly␈α∀from␈α∀the␈α∀formulation␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀problem,␈α∀even␈α∀though␈α∀the␈α∀idea␈α∀quickly␈α∀occurs␈α∀to␈α∀a
␈↓ α,␈↓mathematician␈α⊂reasonably␈α⊂experienced␈α⊂with␈α⊂combinatorial␈α⊂problems.␈α⊂ Thus␈α⊂creativity␈α⊂is␈α⊂relative
␈↓ α,␈↓to␈α∪a␈α∪stock␈α∪of␈α∪ideas,␈α∪and␈α∪there␈α∪is␈α∪such␈α∪a␈α∪thing␈α∪as␈α∪"easy␈α∪creativity".␈α∪ Progress␈α∪in␈α∪AI␈α∪and␈α∪in␈α∪the
␈↓ α,␈↓psychology␈α⊂of␈α⊂intelligence␈α⊂requires␈α⊂the␈α⊂scienti≡c␈α⊂study␈α⊂of␈α⊂such␈α⊂easy␈α⊂creativity.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂beginning␈α⊂of
␈↓ α,␈↓such␈α∂a␈α∂study␈α∂lies␈α∂in␈α∂formulating␈α∂a␈α∂mathematical␈α∂logical␈α∂notion␈α∂of␈α∂what␈α∂concepts␈α∂are␈α∂immediately
␈↓ α,␈↓available.

␈↓ α,␈↓Mathematical logic
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂021


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Minsky␈α≠underestimates␈α≠the␈α≠potential␈α≠contribution␈α≠of␈α≠mathematical␈α≠logic.␈α≠ The␈α≠essential
␈↓ α,␈↓virtue␈α∀of␈α∀a␈α∀declarative␈α∀language␈α∀is␈α∀that␈α∀sentences␈α∀can␈α∀be␈α∀made␈α∀to␈α∀have␈α∀meaning␈α∀substantially
␈↓ α,␈↓independent␈α∩of␈α∩context.␈α∩ Humans␈α∩need␈α∩them␈α∩for␈α∩transferring␈α∩information␈α∩between␈α∩people␈α∩who
␈↓ α,␈↓know␈α∃little␈α∃about␈α∃the␈α∃workings␈α∃of␈α∃each␈α∃others␈α∃brains.␈α∃ However,␈α∃␈↓↓context-free␈↓␈α∃meaning␈α∃is␈α∃also
␈↓ α,␈↓important␈α⊃for␈α⊃communicating␈α⊃between␈α⊃processes␈α⊃in␈α⊃a␈α⊃computer␈α⊃and␈α⊃for␈α⊃storing␈α⊃information␈α⊃for
␈↓ α,␈↓future␈α∃use␈α∃without␈α∃having␈α∃to␈α∃recreate␈α∃the␈α∃intellectual␈α∃situation␈α∃in␈α∃which␈α∃the␈α∃information␈α∃was
␈↓ α,␈↓developed.␈α≥ Of␈α≥course,␈α≥this␈α≥independence␈α≥is␈α≥imperfect,␈α≥and␈α≥most␈α≥writers␈α≥have␈α≥mistakenly
␈↓ α,␈↓concentrated on the imperfections of context-free meaning - missing its importance.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|In␈α↔fact,␈α↔I␈α↔doubt␈α↔that␈α↔the␈α↔present␈α↔generation␈α↔of␈α↔"expert"␈α↔programs␈α↔will␈α↔have␈α↔a␈α↔long␈α↔life,
␈↓ α,␈↓precisely␈α⊂because␈α⊂the␈α⊂information␈α⊂they␈α⊂contain␈α⊂is␈α⊂insu≠ciently␈α⊂context-free.␈α⊂ I␈α⊂think␈α⊂it␈α⊂will␈α⊂often
␈↓ α,␈↓prove impossible to use two or more of them in a larger system.

␈↓ α,␈↓Science Fiction Scenarios

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Minsky␈α↔takes␈α↔science␈α↔≡ction␈α↔ideas␈α↔too␈α↔seriously,␈α↔because␈α↔he␈α↔underestimates␈α↔the␈α↔extent␈α↔to
␈↓ α,␈↓which␈α∩the␈α∩writers'␈α∩requirements␈α∩to␈α∩produce␈α∩a␈α∩story␈α∩have␈α∩distorted␈α∩their␈α∩imagination␈α∩about␈α∩the
␈↓ α,␈↓possibilities␈α≠of␈α≠AI␈α≠and␈α~robots.␈α≠ They␈α≠need␈α≠con∨ict␈α≠situations␈α≠between␈α≠approximately␈α≠equal
␈↓ α,␈↓antagonists␈α∃in␈α∃which␈α∃important␈α∃issues␈α∃are␈α∃seen␈α∃to␈α∃be␈α∃at␈α∃stake␈α∃and␈α∃in␈α∃which␈α∃individual␈α∃e≥ort
␈↓ α,␈↓makes␈α∂a␈α∂decisive␈α∂and␈α∂clear␈α∂cut␈α∂di≥erence.␈α∂ It␈α∂is␈α∂also␈α∂necessary␈α∂for␈α∂the␈α∂author␈α∂to␈α∂hold␈α∂out␈α∂an␈α∂idea
␈↓ α,␈↓from␈α∀his␈α∀characters␈α∀until␈α∀the␈α∀climax.␈α∀ Often␈α∀this␈α∀is␈α∀something␈α∀that␈α∀will␈α∀occur␈α∀to␈α∀most␈α∀people
␈↓ α,␈↓years before the situation arises.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|In␈α≠considering␈α≠the␈α≠"HAL␈α≠scenario",␈α≠one␈α≠must␈α≠distinguish␈α≠between␈α≠programs␈α≠that␈α≠give
␈↓ α,␈↓advice␈α∪from␈α∪those␈α∪given␈α∪operational␈α∪powers.␈α∪ One␈α∪should␈α∪not␈α∪give␈α∪an␈α∪ill-understood␈α∪program
␈↓ α,␈↓operational␈α_powers␈α_in␈α_an␈α_area␈α↔where␈α_its␈α_actions␈α_could␈α_result␈α_in␈α_disaster.␈α_ Secondly,␈α_when␈α_a
␈↓ α,␈↓program␈α~gives␈α~advice,␈α~one␈α~can␈α~distinguish␈α~between␈α~using␈α~it␈α~to␈α~get␈α~ideas␈α~and␈α~following␈α~it
␈↓ α,␈↓trustingly.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|There␈α∂are␈α∂important␈α∂problems␈α∂in␈α∂comparing␈α∂the␈α∂human␈α∂motivational␈α∂structure␈α∂with␈α∂that␈α∂of
␈↓ α,␈↓machines.␈α_ As␈α_far␈α_as␈α_I␈α_can␈α_see,a␈α_human␈α_doesn't␈α_usually␈α_have␈α_an␈α_overall␈α_goal␈α_to␈α_which␈α_all
␈↓ α,␈↓subgoals␈α∀remain␈α∀subordinate.␈α∀ A␈α∀goal␈α∀often␈α∀arises␈α∀as␈α∀a␈α∀kind␈α∀of␈α∀metaphor␈α∀-␈α∀it␈α∀is␈α∀analogous␈α∀to
␈↓ α,␈↓something␈α≡that␈α≡satis≡ed␈α≡hunger␈α≡or␈α≡elicited␈α≡personal␈α≡approval,␈α≡but␈α≡then␈α≡becomes␈α≡entirely
␈↓ α,␈↓independent␈α⊗of␈α⊗its␈α⊗causes␈α⊗and␈α⊗is␈α⊗pursued␈α⊗even␈α⊗in␈α⊗opposition␈α⊗to␈α⊗them.␈α⊗ Secondly,␈α⊗the␈α⊗weight
␈↓ α,␈↓given␈α∂to␈α∂various␈α∂accepted␈α∂long␈α∂range␈α∂goals␈α∂depends␈α∂on␈α∂physical␈α∂state,␈α∂i.e.␈α∂when␈α∂a␈α∂person␈α∂is␈α∂tired,
␈↓ α,␈↓his␈α→ideas␈α→of␈α→what␈α→goals␈α→to␈α→pursue␈α→in␈α→the␈α→next␈α→≡ve␈α→years␈α→are␈α→altered.␈α→ Finally,␈α→the␈α→human
␈↓ α,␈↓motivational␈α↔structure␈α↔evolved␈α↔under␈α↔quite␈α↔di≥erent␈α↔conditions␈α↔from␈α↔those␈α↔of␈α↔civilization␈α↔or
␈↓ α,␈↓even a tribal society.  As a result, it has all kinds of peculiarities.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α⊂result␈α⊂of␈α⊂all␈α⊂these␈α⊂considerations␈α⊂is␈α⊂that␈α⊂it␈α⊂would␈α⊂be␈α⊂both␈α⊂di≠cult␈α⊂and␈α⊂inappropriate␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓make␈α≡computer␈α≡programs␈α≡with␈α≡motivational␈α≡structures␈α≡like␈α≡those␈α≡of␈α≡humans.␈α≡ Obedience
␈↓ α,␈↓coupled␈α⊃with␈α⊃the␈α⊃requirement␈α⊃that␈α⊃the␈α⊃human␈α⊃user␈α⊃be␈α⊃given␈α⊃a␈α⊃full␈α⊃picture␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃consequences
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α↔all␈α↔contemplated␈α↔courses␈α↔of␈α↔actions␈α↔seems␈α↔attainable␈α↔and␈α↔appropriate.␈α↔ As␈α↔we␈α↔understand
␈↓ α,␈↓more␈α≡about␈α≡intelligence,␈α≡we␈α≡shall␈α≡know␈α≡more␈α≡about␈α≡appropriate␈α≡control␈α≡mechanisms␈α≡for
␈↓ α,␈↓intelligent␈α∩machines.␈α∩ My␈α∩point␈α∩isn't␈α∩so␈α∩much␈α⊃to␈α∩say␈α∩that␈α∩there␈α∩will␈α∩be␈α∩no␈α∩dangers␈α∩or␈α∩problems
␈↓ α,␈↓but rather that they will be di≥erent from those imagined by the science ≡ction writers.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂022


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ εVCOMMENTS ON PERLIS'S PAPER

␈↓ α,␈↓A␈α∪good␈α∪paper.␈α∪ I␈α∪can't␈α∪at␈α∪the␈α∪moment␈α∪think␈α∪of␈α∪any␈α∪comments␈α∪short␈α∪of␈α∪rewriting␈α∪the␈α∪paper␈α∪to
␈↓ α,␈↓conform to my own ideas.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂023


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ¬4Counters to Weizenbaum comments on Future Study

␈↓ α,␈↓``The␈α!question␈α!which␈α!appears␈α!to␈α!be␈α!asked␈α!only␈α!rarely␈α!is␈α!what␈α!pressing␈α!problems␈α!this
␈↓ α,␈↓innundation of technological ≡xes is supposed to attack.''

␈↓ α,␈↓Maybe␈α∂no␈α∂problems.␈α∂ Perhaps␈α∂they␈α∂only␈α∂give␈α∂individuals␈α∂some␈α∂opportunities.␈α∂ Since␈α∂no␈α∂sacri≡ces
␈↓ α,␈↓are␈α∀being␈α∀requested,␈α∀it␈α∀requires␈α∀only␈α∀the␈α∀that␈α∀the␈α∀gadgets␈α∀that␈α∀further␈α∀computer␈α∀development
␈↓ α,␈↓makes␈α⊗available,␈α⊗seem␈α⊗worth␈α⊗their␈α⊗price␈α⊗to␈α⊗the␈α⊗potential␈α⊗purchasers.␈α⊗ It␈α⊗is␈α⊗hard␈α⊗to␈α⊗see␈α⊗what
␈↓ α,␈↓"pressing problem" the pocket calculator ≡xes, but we have them.

␈↓ α,␈↓Weizenbaum's␈α~desire␈α~that␈α~all␈α~be␈α~subordinated␈α~to␈α~≡xing␈α~"␈α~the␈α~aimlessness␈α~of␈α~everyday␈α~life
␈↓ α,␈↓experienced␈α∨by␈α∨millions"␈α∨is␈α∨somewhat␈α∨dubious.␈α∨ Perhaps␈α∨the␈α∨millions␈α∨would␈α∨worry␈α∨that
␈↓ α,␈↓Weizenbaum␈α→has␈α→some␈α→authoritarian␈α→prescription␈α→should␈α→people␈α→under␈α→his␈α→in∨uence␈α→obtain
␈↓ α,␈↓power.

␈↓ α,␈↓"overly technological society".  How so?

␈↓ α,␈↓National␈α⊃information␈α⊃policy␈α⊃(quote␈α⊃from␈α⊃Bell␈α⊃on␈α⊃p.␈α⊃784).␈α⊃ I␈α⊃see␈α⊃no␈α⊃obvious␈α⊃need␈α⊃for␈α⊃a␈α⊃National
␈↓ α,␈↓Information␈α≥policy␈α≥except␈α≥of␈α≥the␈α≥most␈α≥limited␈α≥sort.␈α≥ The␈α≥Government␈α≥should␈α≥pay␈α≥for␈α≥a
␈↓ α,␈↓computerized␈α∀version␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀Library␈α∀of␈α∪Congress␈α∀(or␈α∀else␈α∀franchise␈α∀a␈α∀private␈α∀monopoly␈α∀to␈α∀do
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α⊂same).␈α⊂ The␈α⊂only␈α⊂reason␈α⊂for␈α⊂this␈α⊂is␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂one-shot␈α⊂conversion␈α⊂of␈α⊂world␈α⊂literature␈α⊂seems␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓be a natural monopoly.

␈↓ α,␈↓"scientism"␈α∃p.787,␈α∃of␈α∃which␈α∃I␈α∃am␈α∃an␈α∃adherent␈α∃(at␈α∃least␈α∃as␈α∃the␈α∃term␈α∃is␈α∃de≡ned␈α∃by␈α∃some␈α∃of␈α∃its
␈↓ α,␈↓detractors) is not an extension of positivism.

␈↓ α,␈↓As␈α⊃to␈α⊃Vietnam,␈α⊃no␈α⊃amount␈α⊃of␈α⊃computers␈α⊃will␈α⊃≡x␈α⊃a␈α⊃bad␈α⊃policy␈α⊃-␈α⊃whether␈α⊃the␈α⊃defect␈α⊃in␈α⊃policy␈α⊃be
␈↓ α,␈↓cowardice␈α∪(as␈α∪I␈α∪think)␈α∪or␈α∪imperialism␈α∪(as␈α∪Weizenbaum␈α∪thinks).␈α∪ Admiral␈α∪Moorer␈α∪is␈α∪quoted␈α∪as
␈↓ α,␈↓criticizing␈α⊗computers,␈α⊗but␈α⊗he␈α⊗probably␈α⊗had␈α⊗even␈α⊗more␈α⊗critical␈α⊗thoughts␈α⊗about␈α⊗the␈α⊗President,
␈↓ α,␈↓Congress, the intellectuals and politicians generallly.

␈↓ α,␈↓Weizenbaum␈α∂is␈α∂using␈α∂an␈α∂example␈α∂from␈α∂a␈α∂≡eld␈α∂(Vietnam),␈α∂in␈α∂which␈α∂most␈α∂intellectuals␈α∂agree␈α∂with
␈↓ α,␈↓him, to make irrelevant points.  Lieutenant Calley was convicted.

␈↓ α,␈↓p.795␈α∀-␈α∀While␈α∀no-one␈α∀may␈α∀fully␈α∀understand␈α∀IBM's␈α∀largest␈α∀operating␈α∀systems␈α∀for␈α∀the␈α∀370,␈α∀it␈α∀is
␈↓ α,␈↓known␈α⊂that␈α⊂they␈α⊂cannot␈α⊂do␈α⊂anything␈α⊂but␈α⊂allocate␈α⊂resources␈α⊂on␈α⊂the␈α⊂basis␈α⊂of␈α⊂very␈α⊂narrow␈α⊂criteria.
␈↓ α,␈↓They cannot act like HAL.
/FONT#0=BASL10[300,SYS]/FONT#1=BASI10[300,SYS]=≡",-.01:?ACDFHIMNPRSTVWYabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzz/FONT#2=BASB10[300,SYS]= ',.ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPRSTUVWYZabcdefghiklmnoprstuvwyzz/FONT#4=SUP[300,SYS]=11